840 Old State Route 22

Dover Plains, NY 12522

$398,800B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,852 sqft · Built 1997 · SingleFamily · Pending · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,709/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,091
• Tax + insurance: −$784
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$989
• Net cashflow: $844/mo
• Annual: $10,132/yr
• Cap rate: 9.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.67%
• DSCR: 1.43
• 1% rule: 1.18%
• Cash to close: $111,664

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $399k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $844 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $399k).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $387k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#818 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, cost of living B; Watch: schools C-, commute C-, housing D+.
• Dover Union Free School District (rural): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #433 of 590 in NY (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $399k implies a 1597% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $112k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$69k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.