840 Old State Route 22 · Dover Plains, NY 12522

$398,800

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,852 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1997 1.39 ac lot $215/sqft · 31% below area Est $578k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully maintained three-bedroom home nestled in the heart of Dover. Offering the perfect blend of comfort and convenience, this property is ideal for both full-time living and a peaceful retreat. Step inside to find a bright and inviting layout featuring a spacious living area, a well-appointed kitchen, and a dining space perfect for everyday living or entertaining. The three generously sized bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, or a home office. Enjoy the outdoors with a private yard—perfect for relaxing, gardening, or hosting gatherings. Located just minutes from local shops, dining, and major roadways, this home offers easy access to everything you need while still providing a quiet, residential setting. Whether you’re a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for a weekend escape, this Dover home presents a wonderful opportunity.

Key facts

• Spacious living area
• Private yard
• Dining space

Tags

• PRIVATE YARD
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• DINING SPACE
• QUIET RESIDENTIAL SETTING
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $844 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $399k).
• Recommended offer: $387k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#818 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, cost of living B; Watch: schools C-, commute C-, housing D+.
• Dover Union Free School District (rural): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #433 of 590 in NY (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $112k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$69k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $399k implies a 1597% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $386,836 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.67%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $577,519
• List price: $398,800
• Delta: -30.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.43×
• Total profit: $271,117
• Equity at exit: $359,271

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.77×
• Total profit: $756,394
• Equity at exit: $774,781

Cash invested: $111,664 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12522

• Home prices YoY: 17.7%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,709 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,091
• Tax from tax record: −$563 /mo · $6,753/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$989
• Net cashflow: $844

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,640

Max offer price $398,800

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,700
• Closing costs: $11,964
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 883-char remark

   Show marketing remark (883 chars)

   Welcome to this beautifully maintained three-bedroom home nestled in the heart of Dover. Offering the perfect blend of comfort and convenience, this property is ideal for both full-time living and a peaceful retreat. Step inside to find a bright and inviting layout featuring a spacious living area, a well-appointed kitchen, and a dining space perfect for everyday living or entertaining. The three generously sized bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, or a home office. Enjoy the outdoors with a private yard—perfect for relaxing, gardening, or hosting gatherings. Located just minutes from local shops, dining, and major roadways, this home offers easy access to everything you need while still providing a quiet, residential setting. Whether you’re a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for a weekend escape, this Dover home presents a wonderful opportunity.

2. 2026-03-24
   listed $398,800 Active 883-char remark

   Show marketing remark (883 chars)

   Welcome to this beautifully maintained three-bedroom home nestled in the heart of Dover. Offering the perfect blend of comfort and convenience, this property is ideal for both full-time living and a peaceful retreat. Step inside to find a bright and inviting layout featuring a spacious living area, a well-appointed kitchen, and a dining space perfect for everyday living or entertaining. The three generously sized bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, or a home office. Enjoy the outdoors with a private yard—perfect for relaxing, gardening, or hosting gatherings. Located just minutes from local shops, dining, and major roadways, this home offers easy access to everything you need while still providing a quiet, residential setting. Whether you’re a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for a weekend escape, this Dover home presents a wonderful opportunity.

3. 1997-05-09
   soldstatus $23,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,753 · $563/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,753 · $563/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $56,508
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,339
• − Property taxes: −$6,753
• − Insurance: −$2,660
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,521
• − Management: −$4,521
• − Depreciation: −$11,601
• Taxable income: $4,113
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$987
• After-tax cash flow: $9,145/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dover Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609210
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $58,267
• Composite: 40.25/100
• National rank: #3768
• State rank: #433 of 590 in NY

Livability — Dover Plains

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #818
• US rank: #15806

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living B Crime A Employment D- Housing D+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,074

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Scandinavian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 39.50%
• Current HPI: 262.8121
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1597.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Listed $398,800 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-05-09 Sold (Public Records) $23,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,753 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.