444389 E Northridge Dr

Sportmans Shores, OK 74301

$119,900C-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 648 sqft · Built 2019 · SingleFamily · Pending · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,036/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$136
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$218
• Net cashflow: $54/mo
• Annual: $650/yr
• Cap rate: 6.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.94%
• DSCR: 1.09
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $33,572

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $54 ($650/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $104k (13.6% below list).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $104k (13.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($829 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Ketchum (rural): math 20% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #166 of 270 in OK (top 62%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 113 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Mayes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mayes County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.