13 Grove Rd

Au Sable Forks, NY 12912

$49,000B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · Built 1920 · SingleFamily · Active · 52 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $983/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax + insurance: −$542
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $-23/mo
• Annual: $-271/yr
• Cap rate: 17.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.29%
• DSCR: 2.70
• 1% rule: 2.01%
• Cash to close: $13,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $49k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-23 ($-271/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $46k (6.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($983 rent vs $49k).
• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $46k (6.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($339 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (6.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,143 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Ausable Valley Central School District (rural): math 36% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #474 of 590 in NY (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 218 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Essex County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $49k implies a 145% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (6.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 17.0% vs local median 1.4% in Au Sable Forks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.