13 Grove Rd · Au Sable Forks, NY 12912

$49,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1920 6,534 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity for a fixer upper. Conveniently located right in the town of Ausable Forks and in walking distance to all local retail. With a beautiful view of the river and a short drive to any outdoor adventure.

Key facts

• Beautiful view
• Walking distance
• 6,534 sq ft lot

Tags

• WALKING DISTANCE
• BEAUTIFUL VIEW

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual taxes listed

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected (100 amp service)
• Home design: Single-family residential house; Two levels; Fixer condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Front porch; Back yard; Cleared lot; Paved road frontage on a county road; Has a view

Interior

• Flooring: Wood floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Double-pane windows; Unfinished dirt-floor basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-23 ($-271/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $46k (6.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($983 rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $46k (6.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 17.0% vs local median 1.4% in Au Sable Forks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,143 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Ausable Valley Central School District (rural): math 36% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #474 of 590 in NY (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 218 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($339 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (6.9% local appreciation)).
• Essex County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $49k implies a 145% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $45,730 (6.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.29%
• DSCR: 2.70
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $162,000
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2446 State Hwy 9N	0.35mi	3/1.0	1,319 (-2%)	8mo	$174,500	$132	73
31 Broad St	0.34mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,315 (-3%)	14mo	$120,000	$91	63
3 Woodyard Ln	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,516 (+12%)	6mo	$182,500	$120	60
12 Mccrea St	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,479 (+10%)	23mo	$168,000	$114	51
31 Mccrea St. St	0.37mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,210 (-10%)	7mo	$229,000	$189	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.92% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $15,712
• Equity at exit: $33,682

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.45×
• Total profit: $47,376
• Equity at exit: $63,735

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12912

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $983 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$61 /mo · $735/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $-23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,011

Max offer price $45,730

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $49,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $49,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $49,000 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,000 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $49,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $49,000 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,000 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $49,000 Active 32 DOM
17. 2026-04-27
    listed $49,000 Active
18. 2025-09-15
    price $39,000
19. 2025-08-14
    price $65,000
20. 1999-04-22
    soldstatus $19,983

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥91°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,794
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$735
• − Insurance: −$5,770
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$944
• − Management: −$944
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable loss: −$768
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$184
• After-tax cash flow: $-87/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ausable Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3616170
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $50,989
• Composite: 37.43/100
• National rank: #4417
• State rank: #474 of 590 in NY

Livability — Au Sable Forks

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1143
• US rank: #23832

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,860

Population outlook (Essex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,758 people
• By 2030: 35,697 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 32,697 · -11.0%
• By 2050: 29,248 · -20.4%
• By 2075: 22,641 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 16,602 · -54.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 13% Slovak 2% German 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Essex

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.2% · R 49.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.8pp toward R · 2008: 13.3pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+5.0 2016: R+3.4 2012: D+15.0 2008: D+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.92%
• Current HPI: 290.3767
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+145.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Listed $49,000 ACVMLS
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $39,000 ACVMLS
• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $65,000 ACVMLS
• 1999-04-22 Sold (Public Records) $19,983 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,812 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.