37356 Carefree Dr #16

Crosslake, MN 56442

$295,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,584 sqft · Built 2000 · Townhouse · Pending · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,303/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax + insurance: −$262
• HOA: −$275
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $-264/mo
• Annual: $-3,174/yr
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.84%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $82,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $295k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-264 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (15.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (21.9% below list).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $230k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#628 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pequot Lakes Public Schools (rural): math 40% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #137 of 301 in MN (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eagle View Elementary (math 69% / reading 57%, grade B, #168 of 857 statewide, top 20%, 601 students, 39% FRL); Pequot Lakes Middle (math 30% / reading 57%, grade D, #128 of 258 statewide, top 49%, 576 students, 38% FRL); Pequot Lakes Senior High (math 32% / reading 57%, grade F, #189 of 471 statewide, top 44%, 620 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools average 37% FRL vs 20% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 420 units permitted in Crow Wing County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Crow Wing County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $164k; list at $295k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 1.4% in Crosslake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.