37356 Carefree Dr #16 · Crosslake, MN 56442

$295,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,584 sqft · Townhouse public records · 35 Days on market

Built 2000 4,791 sqft lot $186/sqft · 40% below area Est $490k · 40% under $275/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Must see crosslake town home in the heart of the lakes area. This end unit features 2 large bedrooms, 2 baths, master suite, attached garage, open floor plan, spacious living area, kitchen with lots of storage & bar seating, one level living, close to the Whitefish Chain, shopping and everything the north country has to offer. Priced to sell!

Key facts

• Custom-tiled shower
• Privacy fencing
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• SINGLE-LEVEL LIVING
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• CUSTOM-TILED SHOWER
• DETACHED GARAGE
• PRIVACY FENCING
• SCENIC BIKING PATHS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is on a private road and located on a no-outlet/dead-end city street; road maintenance by association and public
• HOA & community: Carefree Cottages association; Monthly association fee of $275; HOA covers hazard insurance, lawn care, grounds maintenance, parking, and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Attached heated, insulated garage with garage door opener; Asphalt driveway; 2 garage spaces (garage approx. 28 x 22)
• Utilities: Well water (4-inch submersible, drilled, shared system); Shared septic system (tank with drainage field); 200+ amp electrical service; Fuel: electric and natural gas; Power provided by Crow Wing Power
• Home design: Residential attached property; Single-level (one story); Main floor entry; Pitched asphalt roof (8 years old or newer)
• Construction: Frame construction; Slab foundation; Age of roof 8 years or less
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior; Patio; Full privacy vinyl fencing; Corner lot with light tree coverage; Underground utilities; No stairs to enter (external) and no internal stairs

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Flooring: Tile floors; Natural woodwork (interior trim and details)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level; One 3/4 primary bathroom (private, main floor)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Other heating features
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Vaulted ceilings; Natural woodwork; Tile floors; Walk-in closet; Washer/dryer hookup; Water softener (owned); Main floor primary bedroom; All living facilities on one level; Main floor bedroom; Main floor laundry
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry room with sink; Washer and dryer included; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-264 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (15.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (21.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 1.4% in Crosslake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#628 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pequot Lakes Public Schools (rural): math 40% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #137 of 301 in MN (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eagle View Elementary (math 69% / reading 57%, grade B, #168 of 857 statewide, top 20%, 601 students, 39% FRL); Pequot Lakes Middle (math 30% / reading 57%, grade D, #128 of 258 statewide, top 49%, 576 students, 38% FRL); Pequot Lakes Senior High (math 32% / reading 57%, grade F, #189 of 471 statewide, top 44%, 620 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools average 37% FRL vs 20% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 420 units permitted in Crow Wing County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Crow Wing County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $164k; list at $295k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $230,333 (21.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.84%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $490,000
• List price: $295,000
• Delta: -39.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-64,584
• Equity at exit: $43,985

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-77,673
• Equity at exit: $25,506

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56442

• Home prices YoY: -19.4%
• Active inventory: 117
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,303 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,670/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$275
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $-264

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,638

Max offer price $248,281

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-97	-5% $-181	+0% $-264	+5% $-348	+10% $-431
Rent	-10% $-446	-5% $-355	+0% $-264	+5% $-173	+10% $-83
Rate	-1.0pp $-116	-0.5pp $-189	base $-264	+0.5pp $-341	+1.0pp $-419

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $275 · $3,300/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $295,000 Pending 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $295,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $295,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $295,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $295,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $295,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-04-30
   listed $295,000 Active 1042-char remark
8. 2019-09-13
   soldstatus $163,500
9. 2016-02-12
   soldstatus $151,000 Sold 350-char remark

   Show marketing remark (350 chars)

   Must see crosslake town home in the heart of the lakes area. This end unit features 2 large bedrooms, 2 baths, master suite, attached garage, open floor plan, spacious living area, kitchen with lots of storage & bar seating, one level living, close to the Whitefish Chain, shopping and everything the north country has to offer. Priced to sell!

10. 2016-02-12
    soldstatus $151,000

    Show marketing remark (350 chars)

    Must see crosslake town home in the heart of the lakes area. This end unit features 2 large bedrooms, 2 baths, master suite, attached garage, open floor plan, spacious living area, kitchen with lots of storage & bar seating, one level living, close to the Whitefish Chain, shopping and everything the north country has to offer. Priced to sell!

11. 2016-01-04
    status Pending 350-char remark

    Show marketing remark (350 chars)

    Must see crosslake town home in the heart of the lakes area. This end unit features 2 large bedrooms, 2 baths, master suite, attached garage, open floor plan, spacious living area, kitchen with lots of storage & bar seating, one level living, close to the Whitefish Chain, shopping and everything the north country has to offer. Priced to sell!

12. 2015-12-28
    historical Contingent - Inspection 350-char remark

    Show marketing remark (350 chars)

    Must see crosslake town home in the heart of the lakes area. This end unit features 2 large bedrooms, 2 baths, master suite, attached garage, open floor plan, spacious living area, kitchen with lots of storage & bar seating, one level living, close to the Whitefish Chain, shopping and everything the north country has to offer. Priced to sell!

13. 2015-11-30
    listed $149,900 Active 350-char remark

    Show marketing remark (350 chars)

    Must see crosslake town home in the heart of the lakes area. This end unit features 2 large bedrooms, 2 baths, master suite, attached garage, open floor plan, spacious living area, kitchen with lots of storage & bar seating, one level living, close to the Whitefish Chain, shopping and everything the north country has to offer. Priced to sell!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,670 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,487 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$817/yr (+$68/mo · 48.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,640
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$1,670
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,211
• − Management: −$2,211
• − HOA: −$3,300
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$8,334
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,000
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,173/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pequot Lakes Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2728200
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $51,513
• Composite: 41.62/100
• National rank: #3430
• State rank: #137 of 301 in MN

Livability — Crosslake

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #628
• US rank: #15018

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A Housing B Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crosslake, MN
• City population: 2,895
• Population (ZIP): 2,895

Population outlook (Crow Wing County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 64,187 people
• By 2030: 64,057 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 62,470 · -2.7%
• By 2050: 59,064 · -8.0%
• By 2075: 48,738 · -24.1%
• By 2100: 36,112 · -43.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 18% Lithuanian 6% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Crow Wing

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.6% · R 65.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.7pp toward R · 2008: -7.7pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+29.7 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+13.4 2008: R+7.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.60%
• Current HPI: 218.1511
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+96.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Listed $295,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-13 Sold (Public Records) $163,500 Public Records
• 2016-02-12 Sold (Public Records) $151,000 Public Records
• 2016-02-12 Sold (MLS) $151,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-01-04 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-12-28 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-30 Listed $149,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,670 · +21.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.