1345 Frog Lake Ln

Florence, WI 54121

$145,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Built 1972 · SingleFamily · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,061/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$242
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $-164/mo
• Annual: $-1,969/yr
• Cap rate: 4.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.85%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $40,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-164 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $121k (16.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $106k (26.8% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $106k (26.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#646 in WI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Florence County School District (rural): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #293 of 426 in WI (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Florence County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Florence County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?