1345 Frog Lake Ln · Florence, WI 54121

$145,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 1972 2.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

3 bed 1 bath home on 2 acres with approx 400' of frontage to Frog Lake. Addition with wood burning fireplace to enjoy. Close to ATV and snowmobile trails, areas boating and fishing.

Key facts

• 2 acre lot
• 3 parking spots
• Built 1972

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 3 or more parking spaces
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic system; Electricity connected (100 amp service); Natural gas connected; Gas water heater; No cooling system listed
• Home design: Manufactured residential home (manufactured before 1976); Single-story
• Construction: Built in 1972; Crawlspace foundation
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Shed; Lakefront on Frog Lake with lake view; Sloping lot; Shoreline: mixed, pebble, wooded; Road frontage (374'); Gravel road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor (17 x 11); Range/oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: First-floor bedroom (12 x 8); First-floor bedroom (8 x 8); First-floor bedroom (approx. 8')
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (located on the first floor)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas supplemental heat
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace; Family room; Total of 6 rooms
• Laundry & utility: No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-164 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $121k (16.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $106k (26.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $106k (26.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#646 in WI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Florence County School District (rural): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #293 of 426 in WI (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Florence County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Florence County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,077 (26.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.85%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $68,538
• Equity at exit: $130,627

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.17×
• Total profit: $210,082
• Equity at exit: $281,703

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Wisconsin: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; Madison / Milwaukee have some local enforcement.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 54121

• Home prices YoY: 11.2%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,061 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$181 /mo · $2,175/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $-164

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,268

Max offer price $121,261

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-64	-5% $-114	+0% $-164	+5% $-214	+10% $-264
Rent	-10% $-248	-5% $-206	+0% $-164	+5% $-122	+10% $-80
Rate	-1.0pp $-91	-0.5pp $-127	base $-164	+0.5pp $-202	+1.0pp $-240

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-12
   historical Keep Showing-Contgcy Appl
3. 2026-05-11
   listed $145,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,729
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,175
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,018
• − Management: −$1,018
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$4,548
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,091
• After-tax cash flow: $-877/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Florence County School District
• NCES district ID: 5504650
• Math proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $45,179
• Composite: 34.48/100
• National rank: #10144
• State rank: #293 of 426 in WI

Livability — Florence

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #646
• US rank: #17051

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,213

Population outlook (Florence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,537 people
• By 2030: 4,511 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 4,301 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 3,904 · -14.0%
• By 2075: 3,192 · -29.6%
• By 2100: 2,459 · -45.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 8% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Florence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.8% · R 74.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.7pp toward R · 2008: -14.1pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+46.0 2016: R+46.4 2012: R+26.4 2008: R+14.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 21.22%
• Current HPI: 210.0264
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$23B
▸Industrial Technology	2	$36B
▸Insurance	1	$36B
▸Professional Services	1	$19B
▸Utilities	1	$9B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$3B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-12 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $145,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS