11421 246th Avenue Ct E

Prairie Heights, WA 98321

$400,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,778 sqft · Built 1998 · Manufactured · Pending · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,189/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax + insurance: −$539
• HOA: −$28
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$670
• Net cashflow: $-146/mo
• Annual: $-1,749/yr
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.56%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $112,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $400k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-146 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $374k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $319k (20.3% below list).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $319k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#19 in WA, #399 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• White River School District (suburban): math 57% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #35 of 291 in WA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Elk Ridge Elementary (595 students, 30% FRL); Glacier Middle School (970 students, 35% FRL); White River High School (1,263 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: 239 active listings in the ZIP; 3,209 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (1,269 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pierce County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $400k implies a 627% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.5% in Prairie Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.