11421 246th Avenue Ct E · Prairie Heights, WA 98321

$400,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,778 sqft · Manufactured public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1998 0.36 ac lot Est $533k · 25% under $28/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Handyman special! Don’t miss this sweat equity opportunity! Sold As Is—bring your vision and build instant equity. This generously sized 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an open-concept layout with great flow and functionality. The primary suite is spacious and includes a relaxing soaking tub and private access through French doors. A bonus room provides flexibility for a home office, fitness space, or additional living area. Natural light pours in through vaulted ceilings and skylights, while a Trane heat pump system keeps the home comfortable year-round. Major improvements completed in 2023 include a new roof and new gutters. Situated on a quiet cul-de-sac with a large backyard f

Key facts

• Soaking tub
• Primary suite
• Bonus room

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• PRIMARY SUITE
• SOAKING TUB
• PRIVATE ACCESS
• BONUS ROOM
• NATURAL LIGHT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-146 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $374k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $319k (20.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $319k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.5% in Prairie Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#19 in WA, #399 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• White River School District (suburban): math 57% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #35 of 291 in WA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Elk Ridge Elementary (595 students, 30% FRL); Glacier Middle School (970 students, 35% FRL); White River High School (1,263 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: 239 active listings in the ZIP; 3,209 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (1,269 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pierce County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $400k implies a 627% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $318,867 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.56%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $533,400
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11421 246th Avenue Ct E	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,778 (0%)	0mo	$410,000	$231	100
11916 243rd Avenue Ct E	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-10%)	2mo	$480,000	$300	63
11907 241st Ave Ct E	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (-9%)	21mo	$490,000	$302	42
11809 237th Avenue Ct E	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-15%)	22mo	$435,000	$288	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-74,111
• Equity at exit: $59,641

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-76,538
• Equity at exit: $34,585

Cash invested: $112,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98321

• Active inventory: 239
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,189 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax from tax record: −$372 /mo · $4,469/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$28
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$670
• Net cashflow: $-146

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,373

Max offer price $374,259

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $81	-5% $-32	+0% $-146	+5% $-259	+10% $-372
Rent	-10% $-398	-5% $-272	+0% $-146	+5% $-20	+10% $106
Rate	-1.0pp $56	-0.5pp $-44	base $-146	+0.5pp $-249	+1.0pp $-355

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,000
• Closing costs: $12,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $28 · $336/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   status Active
3. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-14
   listed $400,000 Active
5. 1998-08-07
   soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,469 · $372/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,469 · $372/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,264
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,406
• − Property taxes: −$4,469
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,061
• − Management: −$3,061
• − HOA: −$336
• − Depreciation: −$11,636
• Taxable loss: −$8,706
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,089
• After-tax cash flow: $341/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: White River School District
• NCES district ID: 5309780
• Math proficiency: 57% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $71,369
• Composite: 56.68/100
• National rank: #2423
• State rank: #35 of 291 in WA

Livability — Prairie Heights

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #399

Category grades

Amenities A Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Prairie Heights, WA
• Population (ZIP): 17,601

Population outlook (Pierce County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 956,648 people
• By 2030: 1,010,862 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,113,170 · +16.4%
• By 2050: 1,206,524 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,436,425 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 1,563,654 · +63.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Italian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pierce

• 2024 margin: D (+10.8) · D 53.9% · R 43.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 10.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.8 2020: D+11.2 2016: D+7.5 2012: D+11.0 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -206.67%
• Current HPI: 310.6568
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+627.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Listed $400,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,469 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.