1 Lodge 610-I

Manson, WA 98831

$3,500D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,460 sqft · Built 1984 · Timeshare · Active · 256 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,406/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$18
• Tax + insurance: −$6
• HOA: −$304
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $1,573/mo
• Annual: $18,871/yr
• Cap rate: 545.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 1925.58%
• DSCR: 86.68
• 1% rule: 68.74%
• Cash to close: $980

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath timeshare listed at $4k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $4k).
• It's been on market 256 days — a 12% lower offer ($3k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $3k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $24 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $105 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#421 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living D+, employment D.
• Manson School District (town): math 42% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #211 of 291 in WA (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 212 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 762 units permitted in Chelan County in 2024 (377 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chelan County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $980 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 545.5% vs local median 2.9% in Manson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 256 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.