1 Lodge 610-I · Manson, WA 98831

$3,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,460 sqft · Timeshare · 256 Days on market

Built 1984 $2/sqft · 2079% above area $304/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Purchase one of the largest 3 bed 2 bath 1460 sq foot luxury suite with lake & mountain views. Only 2 available. 3 rotating weeks every year. Located steps away from indoor/outdoor pools, community sandy beach waterfront amenities, boat moorage, on-site watercraft rentals, tennis/pickle ball courts, children's activity center & more. Upper floor unit has all living space on one level with Primary Bedroom on Upper Level (TV/tub/shower). Upcoming weeks: Feb 13-20 is rented for Instant Income to Buyer, June 12-19 & Oct 9-16 in 2026. March 19-26, July 16-23 & Nov 12-19 in 2027. April 14-21, Aug 11-18 & Dec 8-15 in 2028. Use your weeks, rent for income or trade thru

Key facts

• Lake views
• Waterfront amenities
• Boat moorage

Tags

• LAKE VIEWS
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• COMMUNITY SANDY BEACH
• WATERFRONT AMENITIES
• BOAT MOORAGE
• ON-SITE WATERCRAFT RENTALS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath timeshare listed at $4k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $4k).
• Recommended offer: $3k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 545.5% vs local median 2.9% in Manson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#421 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living D+, employment D.
• Manson School District (town): math 42% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #211 of 291 in WA (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 212 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 762 units permitted in Chelan County in 2024 (377 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $24 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $105 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chelan County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $980 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 256 days — a 12% lower offer ($3k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $3,080 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 256 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 68.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 545.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 1925.58%
• DSCR: 86.68
• GRM: 0.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $164
• List price: $3,500
• Delta: 2031.03%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1 Lodge 636-J	0.06mi	3/3.0	1,377 (-6%)	17mo	$2,850	$2	70
1 Nekquelekin 436-F	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-4%)	22mo	$10,000	$7	66
1 Lodge 639-C	0.10mi	3/3.0	1,327 (-9%)	13mo	$50	—	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 102.85×
• Total profit: $99,813
• Equity at exit: $522

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 222.21×
• Total profit: $216,790
• Equity at exit: $303

Cash invested: $980 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98831

• Active inventory: 212
• Price-to-rent: 0.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,406 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$18
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$4 /mo · $52/yr
• Insurance: −$1
• HOA: −$304
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $1,573

Break-even live

Break-even rent $415

Max offer price $3,500

Occupancy floor 30%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $875
• Closing costs: $105
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
250 S Harris Ave Unit A Manson, WA	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,995	$1.43	43d	1	0.29mi
501 Oakwood Dr Manson, WA	3.0	2.0	1633	$3,000	$1.84	43d	1	0.45mi
608 Havenwood Dr Manson, WA	3.0	2.0	1534	$2,500	$1.63	43d	1	0.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $304 · $3,648/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $3,500 Active 256 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $3,500 Active 255 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $3,500 Active 254 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $3,500 Active 253 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $3,500 Active 252 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $3,500 Active 251 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $3,500 Active 250 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $3,500 Active 247 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $3,500 Active 246 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $3,500 Active 245 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $3,500 Active 244 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $3,500 Active 241 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $3,500 Active 240 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $3,500 Active 239 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $3,500 Active 238 DOM
16. 2025-10-05
    listed $3,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥95°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 23 unhealthy d/yr today · 25 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,872
• − Mortgage interest: −$196
• − Property taxes: −$52
• − Insurance: −$18
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,310
• − Management: −$2,310
• − HOA: −$3,648
• − Depreciation: −$102
• Taxable income: $20,237
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,857
• After-tax cash flow: $14,014/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manson School District
• NCES district ID: 5304740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,123
• Composite: 37.53/100
• National rank: #8876
• State rank: #211 of 291 in WA

Livability — Manson

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #421
• US rank: #16741

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing B- Health & safety C- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manson, WA
• Population (ZIP): 4,020

Population outlook (Chelan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 81,630 people
• By 2030: 84,312 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 88,619 · +8.6%
• By 2050: 91,915 · +12.6%
• By 2075: 99,409 · +21.8%
• By 2100: 100,032 · +22.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (57%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 40% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Portuguese 5% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 38% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chelan

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.5) · D 43.9% · R 53.4% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.5pp toward D · 2008: -12.0pp · 2024: -9.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.5 2020: R+7.8 2016: R+15.7 2012: R+16.9 2008: R+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -325.60%
• Current HPI: 249.0392
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-10-05 Listed $3,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid