5901 N Oracle Rd #28

Casas Adobes, AZ 85704

$179,000F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,014 sqft · Built 1958 · Condo · Active · 196 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,541/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax + insurance: −$298
• HOA: −$427
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $-447/mo
• Annual: $-5,359/yr
• Cap rate: 3.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.69%
• DSCR: 0.52
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $50,120

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $179k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-447 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $114k (36.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (13.9% below list).
• It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $114k (36.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#8 in AZ, #2,353 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, employment B+; Watch: amenities D.
• Amphitheater Unified District (4406) (suburban): math 32% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #85 of 249 in AZ (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Copper Creek Elementary School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #398 of 1,109 statewide, top 37%, 297 students, 25% FRL); La Cima Middle School (math 12% / reading 19%, grade F, #155 of 218 statewide, top 71%, 421 students, 78% FRL); Amphitheater High School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 1,163 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 24% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 22% at this address vs 36% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Amphitheater Unified District (4406) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent; built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 308 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?