5901 N Oracle Rd #28 · Casas Adobes, AZ 85704

$179,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,014 sqft · Condo · 187 Days on market

Built 1958 Good condition $177/sqft · 6% below area Est $191k · 6% under $427/mo HOA · 27% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• Cash flow +4.9/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tastefully updated and centrally located, this inviting 2-bedroom, 2 bath ground level condo offers comfort and convenience. The home features a beautifully renovated kitchen and refreshed bathrooms providing a modern move in ready fee. Enjoy a peaceful setting within a quiet community just minutes from shopping dining and everyday amenities. HOA covers water, gas, sewer, trash exterior building maintenance, and access to the community pool. On site laundry facilities add convenience and rental opportunities are permitted making this an excellent option for both homeowners and investors.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Renovated kitchen
• Refreshed bathrooms

Tags

• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• REFRESHED BATHROOMS
• COMMUNITY POOL
• ON SITE LAUNDRY FACILITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $179k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-426 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $117k (34.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (12.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $117k (34.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#8 in AZ, #2,353 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, employment B+; Watch: amenities D.
• Amphitheater Unified District (4406) (suburban): math 32% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #85 of 249 in AZ (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Copper Creek Elementary School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #398 of 1,109 statewide, top 37%, 297 students, 25% FRL); La Cima Middle School (math 12% / reading 19%, grade F, #155 of 218 statewide, top 71%, 421 students, 78% FRL); Amphitheater High School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 1,163 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 24% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 22% at this address vs 36% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Amphitheater Unified District (4406) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 273 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 64d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 187 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent; built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,312 (34.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 187 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.21%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $190,986
• List price: $179,000
• Delta: -6.28%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5901 N Oracle Rd #14	0.02mi	2/1.0	882 (-13%)	3mo	$170,000	$193	70
706 W Rushwood Dr	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,100 (+8%)	3mo	$278,000	$253	62
465 W Calle Lindero	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,242 (+22%)	2mo	$226,000	$182	59
6331 N Barcelona Ct #920	0.53mi	2/1.0	912 (-10%)	1mo	$118,000	$129	54
6367 N Willowhaven	0.61mi	2/2.0	1,107 (+9%)	4mo	$255,000	$230	53
6335 N Barcelona Ln #719	0.52mi	2/1.0	912 (-10%)	4mo	$90,000	$99	52
6300 N Willowbrook Dr Dr	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,156 (+14%)	4mo	$230,000	$199	50
5239 N Tigua Dr	0.81mi	2/2.0	1,104 (+9%)	1mo	$273,000	$247	50
5212 N Pueblo Villas Dr	0.87mi	2/2.0	1,104 (+9%)	4mo	$290,000	$263	47
997 W Paria Ln	1.12mi	2/2.0	1,232 (+22%)	2mo	$240,000	$195	39
978 W Lockwood Ln	1.12mi	2/2.0	1,232 (+22%)	2mo	$237,000	$192	39
990 W Paria Ln	1.10mi	2/2.0	1,232 (+22%)	4mo	$275,000	$223	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-57,695
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: -61.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.82×
• Total profit: $-91,347
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 0 active · 2 under contract

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85704

• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 273
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,567 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$224 /mo · $2,685/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$427
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $-426

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,106

Max offer price $117,312

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-303	-5% $-364	+0% $-426	+5% $-488	+10% $-550
Rent	-10% $-550	-5% $-488	+0% $-426	+5% $-364	+10% $-303
Rate	-1.0pp $-336	-0.5pp $-381	base $-426	+0.5pp $-473	+1.0pp $-520

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5921 N Oracle Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	896	$1,377	$1.54	0d	14	0.08mi
629 W Las Lomitas Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	802	$1,275	$1.59	139d	1	0.17mi
513 W Panorama Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	600	$1,121	$1.87	0d	6	0.18mi
604 W Roller Coaster Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1391	$1,675	$1.20	63d	1	0.27mi
510 W Calle Lago Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1330	$1,600	$1.20	9d	1	0.29mi
510 W Calle Lago Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1330	$1,700	$1.28	67d	1	0.29mi
6208 N Rockglen Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1460	$1,995	$1.37	71d	1	0.37mi
745 W Sunlight Ln Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1417	$1,875	$1.32	139d	1	0.40mi
745 W Sunlight Ln Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1417	$1,875	$1.32	112d	1	0.40mi
6100 N Oracle Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1473	$2,295	$1.56	0d	1	0.40mi
762 W Rushwood Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1417	$1,699	$1.20	99d	1	0.42mi
709 W Millbrook Ln Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1417	$1,600	$1.13	99d	1	0.43mi
6312 N Barcelona Ln #608 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	960	$1,200	$1.25	9d	1	0.50mi
6200 N Oracle Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	705	$1,275	$1.81	4d	6	0.51mi
645 W Orange Grove Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1259	$1,800	$1.43	0d	14	0.59mi
461 W Yucca Ct Unit 312 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	960	$1,303	$1.36	9d	1	0.60mi
6368 N Willowhaven Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1051	$1,600	$1.52	139d	1	0.60mi
951 W Orange Grove Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1031	$1,758	$1.70	0d	17	0.67mi
5277 N Tigua Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1380	$2,800	$2.03	81d	1	0.72mi
444 W Orange Grove Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	641	$1,312	$2.05	0d	19	0.74mi
750 W Orange Grove Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	983	$1,700	$1.73	5d	13	0.74mi
5829 N Escondido Ln Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,745	$1.28	74d	1	0.78mi
179 W Lillian Ln Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,675	$1.58	139d	1	0.82mi
5213 N Tigua Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1104	$1,775	$1.61	0d	1	0.85mi
6361 N Camino Aguante Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,745	$1.36	6d	1	0.89mi
60 W Stone Loop Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	588	$1,320	$2.24	0d	26	1.08mi
1100 W River Rd Unit 14 Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1187	$2,450	$2.06	66d	1	1.28mi
1100 W River Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1187	$2,250	$1.90	0d	1	1.28mi
1100 W River Rd Unit 7 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.5	1026	$2,200	$2.14	115d	1	1.28mi
1100 W River Rd Unit 12 Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1187	$2,400	$2.02	71d	1	1.28mi
5100 N La Canada Dr Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	812	$1,758	$2.17	0d	19	1.35mi
5100 N La Canada Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	938	$1,408	$1.50	139d	1	1.35mi
5144 N Avenida Primera Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1176	$1,695	$1.44	7d	1	1.44mi
5025 N 1st Ave Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	640	$1,200	$1.88	7d	1	1.44mi
5108 N Avenida Primera Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1176	$1,550	$1.32	87d	1	1.45mi
1311 W Wheatridge Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,725	$1.22	81d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail $427/mo · $5,124/yr condo

• Likely covers: watersewertrashgaspool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $179,000 Active 187 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $179,000 Active 186 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $179,000 Active 185 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $179,000 Active 184 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $179,000 Active 183 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 182 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 181 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 180 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 179 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $179,000 Active 178 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $179,000 Active 177 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $179,000 Active 176 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $179,000 Active 175 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $179,000 Active 169 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $179,000 Active 168 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $179,000 Active 167 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 164 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $179,000 Active 163 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $179,000 Active 162 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $179,000 Active 161 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $179,000 Active 160 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $179,000 Active 159 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $179,000 Active 158 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $179,000 Active 157 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $179,000 Active 156 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $179,000 Active 155 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $179,000 Active 154 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $179,000 Active 153 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $179,000 Active 152 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $179,000 Active 151 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $179,000 Active 150 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $179,000 Active 149 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $179,000 Active 148 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $179,000 Active 147 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $179,000 Active 146 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $179,000 Active 145 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $179,000 Active 144 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $179,000 Active 143 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $179,000 Active 142 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $179,000 Active 141 DOM
41. 2026-08-07
    days on market $179,000 Active 140 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $179,000 Active 139 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $179,000 Active 138 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $179,000 Active 137 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $179,000 Active 136 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 133 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $179,000 Active 132 DOM
48. 2026-07-30
    days on market $179,000 Active 131 DOM
49. 2026-07-28
    days on market $179,000 Active 130 DOM
50. 2026-07-26
    days on market $179,000 Active 128 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,801
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$2,685
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,504
• − Management: −$1,504
• − HOA: −$5,124
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable loss: −$8,145
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,955
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,161/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,070–$15,210 screening

This well-maintained and updated 2-bedroom, 2-bath condo is in excellent condition and ready for move-in. It offers a great location and is suitable for both homeowners and investors.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Installing smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can boost curb appeal and attract more potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 31/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary The Innovation Academy B+ AZ #73/1,109 Nat'l #4,366/41,679 Middle La Cima Middle School F AZ #155/218 Nat'l #12,557/14,009 High Amphitheater High School F AZ #343/381 Nat'l #16,463/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amphitheater Unified District (4406)
• NCES district ID: 0400680
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $46,524
• Composite: 30.82/100
• National rank: #6135
• State rank: #85 of 249 in AZ

B Composite livability gradescore 79/100

Livability — Casas Adobes

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #2353

Category grades

Amenities D Commute B Cost of living B+ Crime C Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Casas Adobes, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,066,056 people
• City population: 67,940
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 35,210
• Household income: $81,696
• Rent vs Own: 42.1% rent · 57.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

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Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 11% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -361.61%
• Current HPI: 300.8235
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.83%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-10.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $179,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $185,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-20 Listed $199,000 MLSSAZ