403 E Chestnut St

Geneseo, IL 61254

$110,000B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Built 1907 · Other · Active · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,133/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax + insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $935/mo
• Annual: $11,223/yr
• Cap rate: 16.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.44%
• DSCR: 2.62
• 1% rule: 1.94%
• Cash to close: $30,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $110k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $935 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $107k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#45 in IL, #907 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Geneseo CUSD 228 (town): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #297 of 620 in IL (top 48%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Millikin Elem School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #749 of 2,056 statewide, top 40%, 368 students, 0% FRL); Geneseo Middle School (math 15% / reading 20%, grade F, #450 of 665 statewide, top 69%, 591 students, 0% FRL); Geneseo High School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #107 of 693 statewide, top 17%, 809 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 18% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1907 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 32 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Henry County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 16.5% vs local median 6.9% in Geneseo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1907 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.