29 Hawk Rd

Conway, NH 03860

$209,900C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 974 sqft · Built 1982 · SingleFamily · Active · 148 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,558/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax + insurance: −$350
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$537
• Net cashflow: $571/mo
• Annual: $6,846/yr
• Cap rate: 9.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.65%
• DSCR: 1.52
• 1% rule: 1.22%
• Cash to close: $58,772

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $571 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $210k).
• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $185k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#33 in NH, #4,690 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Conway School District (rural): math 28% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #73 of 98 in NH (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: John H. Fuller School (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #62 of 263 statewide, top 30%, 177 students, 32% FRL); A. Crosby Kennett Middle School (math 22% / reading 44%, grade F, #60 of 96 statewide, top 63%, 235 students, 39% FRL); Kennett High School (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #47 of 90 statewide, top 57%, 706 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools at 33% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 88 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 357 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carroll County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 2.8% in Conway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — The roof is not visible, but the house appears abandoned and overgrown, suggesting potential structural issues.
• Major: exterior — The exterior is overgrown and abandoned, indicating significant neglect.
• Major: interior — No interior photos are provided, but the house appears abandoned and overgrown, suggesting significant neglect inside as well.
• Major: flooring — No flooring photos are provided, but the house appears abandoned and overgrown, suggesting significant neglect inside as well.
• Major: systems — No system photos are provided, but the house appears abandoned and overgrown, suggesting significant neglect inside as well.