29 Hawk Rd · Conway, NH 03860

$209,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 974 sqft · SingleFamily · 148 Days on market

Built 1982 Poor condition 0.53 ac lot $216/sqft · 51% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A fantastic opportunity to exercise your design and remodeling skills awaits just outside North Conway Village. Located just off Thompson Road this home was acquired by the state of NH many years for a now abandoned road project and the time has come for it to be sold. The potential here is huge-a level lot in a great neighborhood with a structure that could be rebuilt or replaced to accommodate your family and friends. The recently installed rec path runs through the back of the lot allowing for easy access to Cranmore Mountain, mountain bike trails and hiking to Black Cap. The property has not been inhabited in some time and access inside is strictly not allowed.

Key facts

• Hiking to black cap
• Level lot
• Mountain bike trails

Tags

• LEVEL LOT
• MOUNTAIN BIKE TRAILS
• HIKING TO BLACK CAP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $571 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $185k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 2.8% in Conway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#33 in NH, #4,690 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Conway School District (rural): math 28% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #73 of 98 in NH (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: John H. Fuller School (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #62 of 263 statewide, top 30%, 177 students, 32% FRL); A. Crosby Kennett Middle School (math 22% / reading 44%, grade F, #60 of 96 statewide, top 63%, 235 students, 39% FRL); Kennett High School (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #47 of 90 statewide, top 57%, 706 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools at 33% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 88 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 357 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Carroll County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $184,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.65%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $425,610
• List price: $209,900
• Delta: -50.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
39 Northface Cir	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,195 (+23%)	11mo	$335,000	$280	54
140 Grove St	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,028 (+6%)	15mo	$445,000	$433	44
30 Northface Cir Unit 30B	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,155 (+19%)	34mo	$285,000	$247	42
243 Skimobile Rd #252	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,194 (+23%)	6mo	$725,000	$607	38
689 Kearsarge Rd #5	1.47mi	2/1.0	884 (-9%)	15mo	$255,000	$288	33
689 Kearsarge Rd #4	1.47mi	1/1.0 (-1)	950 (-2%)	31mo	$265,000	$279	32
95 Mechanic St	0.92mi	2/1.0	916 (-6%)	33mo	$430,000	$469	31
689 Kearsarge Rd #1	1.47mi	1/2.0 (-1)	1,057 (+8%)	30mo	$300,000	$284	26
243 Skimobile Rd #152	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,173 (+20%)	22mo	$929,000	$792	24
252 Kearsarge Rd	0.74mi	2/1.0	1,100 (+13%)	21mo	$397,500	$361	22
112 Seavey St	0.78mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,056 (+8%)	25mo	$400,000	$379	22
17 Skimobile Rd	0.76mi	1/1.0 (-1)	864 (-11%)	28mo	$365,000	$422	17

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $2,363
• Equity at exit: $31,297

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $49,005
• Equity at exit: $18,148

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Hampshire: 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Has just-cause statute; 30-day notice; landlord-leaning vs. neighbors.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 2 active
• Median asking: $440,000 ($478/sqft)
• Median days on market: 114 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -8.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 03860

• Home prices YoY: -6.1%
• Active inventory: 88
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,558 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$262 /mo · $3,148/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$537
• Net cashflow: $571

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,836

Max offer price $209,900

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $716	-5% $643	+0% $571	+5% $498	+10% $425
Rent	-10% $368	-5% $469	+0% $571	+5% $672	+10% $773
Rate	-1.0pp $676	-0.5pp $624	base $571	+0.5pp $516	+1.0pp $461

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2760 New Hampshire 16 Unit E008A Conway, NH	1.0	1.0	700	$3,000	$4.29	3d	1	1.18mi
2895 White Mountain Hwy Unit 2 Conway, NH	2.0	1.0	800	$2,100	$2.62	140d	1	1.39mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel driveway
• Utilities: Electric service at the streetWater source: unknownSewer: unknownInternet: unknownOther utilities: other
• Home design: Cape-style homeExisting construction
• Construction: Wood frame constructionShingle roofBuilt in 1982
• Exterior features: Property includes wooded areas and walking trailsNear trails, paths, shopping, skiing, hospital, and schoolsEasements on the propertyUse GPS for directions; house is the first on the right after turning onto Hawk Road

Interior

• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heatingCooling: Other
• Interior features: Five total roomsBasement present and unfinishedInterior access to basement

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-25
   days on market $209,900 Active 148 DOM
2. 2026-09-24
   days on market $209,900 Active 147 DOM
3. 2026-09-23
   days on market $209,900 Active 146 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $209,900 Active 144 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $209,900 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $209,900 Active 142 DOM
7. 2026-09-19
   days on market $209,900 Active 141 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $209,900 Active 140 DOM
9. 2026-09-17
   days on market $209,900 Active 139 DOM
10. 2026-09-16
    days on market $209,900 Active 138 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $209,900 Active 137 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $209,900 Active 136 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $209,900 Active 135 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $209,900 Active 134 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    statusdays on market $209,900 Active 128 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $209,900 Active with Contract 127 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $209,900 Active with Contract 126 DOM
18. 2026-09-02
    days on market $209,900 Active with Contract 125 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $209,900 Active with Contract 122 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $209,900 Active with Contract 121 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $209,900 Active with Contract 120 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $209,900 Active with Contract 119 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $209,900 Active with Contract 117 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $209,900 Active with Contract 116 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $209,900 Active with Contract 115 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $209,900 Active with Contract 114 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $209,900 Active with Contract 113 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $209,900 Active with Contract 112 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $209,900 Active with Contract 111 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $209,900 Active with Contract 110 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $209,900 Active with Contract 109 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $209,900 Active with Contract 108 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $209,900 Active with Contract 107 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $209,900 Active with Contract 106 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $209,900 Active with Contract 105 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $209,900 Active with Contract 104 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $209,900 Active with Contract 103 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $209,900 Active with Contract 102 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $209,900 Active with Contract 101 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $209,900 Active with Contract 100 DOM
41. 2026-08-07
    days on market $209,900 Active with Contract 99 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $209,900 Active with Contract 98 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $209,900 Active with Contract 97 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $209,900 Active with Contract 96 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $209,900 Active with Contract 95 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $209,900 Active with Contract 92 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $209,900 Active with Contract 91 DOM
48. 2026-07-29
    days on market $209,900 Active with Contract 90 DOM
49. 2026-07-27
    days on market $209,900 Active with Contract 88 DOM
50. 2026-07-25
    days on market $209,900 Active with Contract 86 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,700
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$3,148
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,456
• − Management: −$2,456
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable income: $3,726
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$894
• After-tax cash flow: $5,952/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab Est. rehab $48,700–$87,660 screening

This property is in a state of abandonment and requires extensive rehabilitation to become habitable and attractive to potential buyers or renters.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The roof is not visible, but the house appears abandoned and overgrown, suggesting potential structural issues.
• Major exterior — The exterior is overgrown and abandoned, indicating significant neglect.
• Major interior — No interior photos are provided, but the house appears abandoned and overgrown, suggesting significant neglect inside as well.
• Major flooring — No flooring photos are provided, but the house appears abandoned and overgrown, suggesting significant neglect inside as well.
• Major systems — No system photos are provided, but the house appears abandoned and overgrown, suggesting significant neglect inside as well.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Clearing the overgrown vegetation and restoring the property to a livable condition — This would make the property habitable and attractive to potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Rehabilitating the roof and exterior to a livable condition — This would make the property habitable and attractive to potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Interior repairs and updates — This would make the property habitable and attractive to potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring and systems — This would make the property habitable and attractive to potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Extensive scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 45/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary John H. Fuller School C NH #62/263 Nat'l #9,801/41,679 Middle A. Crosby Kennett Middle School F NH #60/96 Nat'l #8,059/14,009 High Kennett High School D- NH #47/90 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conway School District
• NCES district ID: 3302490
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $49,590
• Composite: 31.9/100
• National rank: #5859
• State rank: #73 of 98 in NH

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Conway

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #4690

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Carroll · 45,072 people
• Population (ZIP): 3,780
• Household income: $81,771
• Rent vs Own: 38.0% rent · 62.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3% of renters

---

Population outlook (Carroll County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,072 people
• By 2030: 43,158 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 38,044 · -15.6%
• By 2050: 33,087 · -26.6%
• By 2075: 25,661 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 18,684 · -58.5%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 8% Serbian 7% Lithuanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Carroll

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.8% · R 50.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -1.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.7 2020: D+1.5 2016: R+5.7 2012: R+0.8 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.63%
• Current HPI: 393.4218
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel driveway
• Utilities: Electric service at the streetWater source: unknownSewer: unknownInternet: unknownOther utilities: other
• Home design: Cape-style homeExisting construction
• Construction: Wood frame constructionShingle roofBuilt in 1982
• Exterior features: Property includes wooded areas and walking trailsNear trails, paths, shopping, skiing, hospital, and schoolsEasements on the propertyUse GPS for directions; house is the first on the right after turning onto Hawk Road

Interior

• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heatingCooling: Other
• Interior features: Five total roomsBasement present and unfinishedInterior access to basement

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $209,900 PrimeMLS