40 Creston Pl

New York, NY 10304

$818,000F

6 bd · 6.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Built 1989 · MultiFamily · Active · 78 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,889/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,290
• Tax + insurance: −$814
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,237
• Net cashflow: $-452/mo
• Annual: $-5,422/yr
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.37%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $229,040

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/3.0-bath units multifamily listed at $818k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-452 ($-5k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-226/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $738k (9.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $589k (28.0% below list).
• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($769k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $589k (28.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $25k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 203 active listings in the ZIP; 480 units permitted in Richmond County in 2024 (22 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Richmond County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 6 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $301k; list at $818k implies a 172% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,889/mo this rent would consume 99% of the median local household income ($72k/yr) (locally 2401% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?