2214 Collins Aly

San Antonio, TX 78109

$198,500D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,266 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Pending · 192 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,729/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,041
• Tax + insurance: −$331
• HOA: −$39
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $-45/mo
• Annual: $-541/yr
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.97%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $55,580

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $198k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-45 ($-541/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (3.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (12.9% below list).
• It's been on market 192 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $173k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• East Central ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #758 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: East Central Heritage Middle (math 11% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 1,120 students, 44% FRL); East Central H S (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,252 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1207 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 192 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — Significant damage and potential water infiltration.
• Major: exterior siding — Severe wear and tear, peeling paint.
• Major: flooring — Visible wear and potential structural issues.
• Major: interior walls — Significant wear and tear, peeling paint.
• Major: HVAC system — Visible rust and potential structural issues.
• Major: landscaping — Minimal landscaping and curb appeal features.