2407 Mustang Ct

Lewisville, TX 75067

$229,900D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,314 sqft · Built 1983 · Townhouse · Active · 99 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,783/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax + insurance: −$458
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $-255/mo
• Annual: $-3,059/yr
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.75%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $64,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $230k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-255 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $185k (19.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (22.4% below list).
• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $178k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#440 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, crime B+; Watch: commute D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Lewisville ISD (suburban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #109 of 826 in TX (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 214 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.2% in Lewisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.