1432 Thrasher Pike

Middle Valley, TN 37343

$97,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 792 sqft · Built 1968 · Land · Active · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,366/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$509
• Tax + insurance: −$59
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $512/mo
• Annual: $6,144/yr
• Cap rate: 12.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.62%
• DSCR: 2.01
• 1% rule: 1.41%
• Cash to close: $27,160

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $97k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $512 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $97k).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $94k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $671 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#127 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, amenities F.
• Hamilton County (urban): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #42 of 139 in TN (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 459 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,133 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (405 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hamilton County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $97k implies a 87% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 3.9% in Middle Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.