1432 Thrasher Pike · Middle Valley, TN 37343

$97,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 792 sqft · Land · 34 Days on market

Built 1968

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Buyer to verify square footage and schools. This mobile home was re-built in 2013 with new septic, field line, new roof, new plumbing, new hot water heater. Property in fence. Utility building stays. This property is sold AS IS. Purchaser is responsible for having all utilities turn on for inspection.

Key facts

• Close to schools
• Lots of remodeling
• Built 1968

Tags

• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING CENTERS
• 5 MINUTES FROM FREEWAY
• LOTS OF REMODELING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1968
• Construction: Original construction completed in 1968
• Exterior features: Located in the Hixson subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $97k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $512 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $97k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 3.9% in Middle Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#127 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, amenities F.
• Hamilton County (urban): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #42 of 139 in TN (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 459 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,133 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (405 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $671 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hamilton County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $97k implies a 87% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,090 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.62%
• DSCR: 2.01
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $16,040
• Equity at exit: $14,463

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.93×
• Total profit: $52,511
• Equity at exit: $8,387

Cash invested: $27,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37343

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 459
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,366 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$509
• Tax from tax record: −$18 /mo · $219/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $512

Break-even live

Break-even rent $718

Max offer price $97,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,250
• Closing costs: $2,910
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $97,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $97,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $97,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $97,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $97,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $97,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $97,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $97,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $97,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $97,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $97,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $97,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-05-12
    listed $97,000 Active
14. 2020-02-07
    soldstatus $52,000
15. 2020-02-05
    soldstatus $52,000 Closed 302-char remark

    Show marketing remark (302 chars)

    Buyer to verify square footage and schools. This mobile home was re-built in 2013 with new septic, field line, new roof, new plumbing, new hot water heater. Property in fence. Utility building stays. This property is sold AS IS. Purchaser is responsible for having all utilities turn on for inspection.

16. 2019-12-19
    historical Contingent 302-char remark

    Show marketing remark (302 chars)

    Buyer to verify square footage and schools. This mobile home was re-built in 2013 with new septic, field line, new roof, new plumbing, new hot water heater. Property in fence. Utility building stays. This property is sold AS IS. Purchaser is responsible for having all utilities turn on for inspection.

17. 2019-12-05
    listed $58,000 Active 302-char remark

    Show marketing remark (302 chars)

    Buyer to verify square footage and schools. This mobile home was re-built in 2013 with new septic, field line, new roof, new plumbing, new hot water heater. Property in fence. Utility building stays. This property is sold AS IS. Purchaser is responsible for having all utilities turn on for inspection.

18. 2006-02-07
    soldstatus $23,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $219 · $18/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $689 · $57/mo
• Expected delta: +$470/yr (+$39/mo · 215.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,394
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,434
• − Property taxes: −$219
• − Insurance: −$485
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,312
• − Management: −$1,312
• − Depreciation: −$2,822
• Taxable income: $4,812
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,155
• After-tax cash flow: $4,989/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hamilton County
• NCES district ID: 4701590
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,456
• Composite: 26.8/100
• National rank: #7122
• State rank: #42 of 139 in TN

Livability — Middle Valley

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #127
• US rank: #11835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middle Valley, TN
• County: Hamilton County · 312,777 people
• City population: 44,572
• Metro: Chattanooga, TN-GA
• Population (ZIP): 45,101
• Household income: $82,227
• Rent vs Own: 24.0% rent · 76.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1152.0

Population outlook (Hamilton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 393,784 people
• By 2030: 412,983 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 449,502 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 484,341 · +23.0%
• By 2075: 565,746 · +43.7%
• By 2100: 618,394 · +57.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hamilton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.1) · D 42.7% · R 55.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.2pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -13.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.1 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+16.6 2012: R+14.8 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -324.61%
• Current HPI: 260.3778
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• Metro: Chattanooga, TN-GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+321.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $97,000 FSBO.com
• 2020-02-07 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 2020-02-05 Sold (MLS) $52,000 GCAR
• 2019-12-19 Contingent — GCAR
• 2019-12-05 Listed $58,000 GCAR
• 2006-02-07 Sold (Public Records) $23,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $219 · -2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.