1011 Clay St

Nocona, TX 76255

$130,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Built 1922 · SingleFamily · Active · 53 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,252/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax + insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $121/mo
• Annual: $1,454/yr
• Cap rate: 7.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.99%
• DSCR: 1.18
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $36,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $121 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (3.7% below list).
• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $125k (3.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#555 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Nocona ISD (town): math 44% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #427 of 826 in TX (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nocona El (math 47% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 366 students, 59% FRL); Nocona Middle (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #660 of 1,662 statewide, top 41%, 194 students, 70% FRL); Nocona H S (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #821 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 244 students, 54% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1922 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 189 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Montague County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montague County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.9% in Nocona — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1922 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.