170 S John St

Bridge City, TX 77611

$80,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,271 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Active · 123 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,492/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax + insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $559/mo
• Annual: $6,713/yr
• Cap rate: 15.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.53%
• DSCR: 2.49
• 1% rule: 1.87%
• Cash to close: $22,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $559 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#251 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Bridge City ISD (other): math 41% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #224 of 826 in TX (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 235 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 15.7% vs local median 2.2% in Bridge City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.