31 Smith St

Ansonia, CT 06483

$310,000C

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,645 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,866/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax + insurance: −$496
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$602
• Net cashflow: $143/mo
• Annual: $1,713/yr
• Cap rate: 6.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.97%
• DSCR: 1.09
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $86,800

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $143 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $287k (7.5% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $287k (7.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.4%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#87 in CT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Seymour School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #93 of 153 in CT (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Chatfield-Lopresti School (math 38% / reading 46%, grade F, #285 of 553 statewide, top 53%, 581 students, 47% FRL); Seymour High School (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #87 of 194 statewide, top 46%, 608 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 45% FRL vs 19% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 502 units permitted in Naugatuck Valley Planning Region in 2024 (171 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 9 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $221k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.8% in Ansonia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($108k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.