8621 Morgan Rd

Sand Ridge, NY 13041

$399,000B-

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,149 sqft · Built 1900 · MultiFamily · Active · 313 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,525/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax + insurance: −$844
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,370
• Net cashflow: $2,218/mo
• Annual: $26,622/yr
• Cap rate: 12.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.83%
• DSCR: 2.06
• 1% rule: 1.64%
• Cash to close: $111,720

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $399k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($27k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $399k).
• It's been on market 313 days — a 12% lower offer ($351k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $351k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#926 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, crime A-; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Liverpool Central School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #381 of 590 in NY (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask is 33% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $399k implies a 565% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $112k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 3.4% in Sand Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 313 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.