8621 Morgan Rd · Sand Ridge, NY 13041

$399,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,149 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 313 Days on market

Built 1900 4.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

4 ACRES OF LAND WITH FULL ACCESS TO MORGAN ROAD. JUST MINUTES AWAY FROM MICRON. PUBLIC WATER AVAILABLE AT PROPERTY. MUILI FAMILY HOME IS LOCATED ON THE PROPERTY WITH 3 UNITS.

Key facts

• 4 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1900

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($27k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $399k).
• Recommended offer: $351k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 3.4% in Sand Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#926 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, crime A-; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Liverpool Central School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #381 of 590 in NY (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $112k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 313 days — a 12% lower offer ($351k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask is 33% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $399k implies a 565% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $351,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 313 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.83%
• DSCR: 2.06
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $76,848
• Equity at exit: $59,492

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.24×
• Total profit: $249,705
• Equity at exit: $34,498

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13041

• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 15.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,525 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax from tax record: −$678 /mo · $8,132/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,370
• Net cashflow: $2,218

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,717

Max offer price $399,000

Occupancy floor 61%

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	3	1	$2,175
▸ 2× units	2	1	$4,350
Total (3 units)			$6,525

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8439 Lace Bark Ln Liverpool, NY	5.0	3.0	1694	$2,897	$1.71	13d	1	0.88mi

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,000 Active 313 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,000 Active 312 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,000 Active 311 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,000 Active 310 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $399,000 Active 308 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,000 Active 307 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $399,000 Active 305 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,000 Active 304 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,000 Active 303 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $399,000 Active 302 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,000 Active 297 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,000 Active 296 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,000 Active 295 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $399,000 Active 294 DOM
15. 2026-03-17
    price $399,000 174-char remark

    Show marketing remark (174 chars)

    4 ACRES OF LAND WITH FULL ACCESS TO MORGAN ROAD. JUST MINUTES AWAY FROM MICRON. PUBLIC WATER AVAILABLE AT PROPERTY. MUILI FAMILY HOME IS LOCATED ON THE PROPERTY WITH 3 UNITS.

16. 2026-03-17
    price $399,000 174-char remark

    Show marketing remark (174 chars)

    4 ACRES OF LAND WITH FULL ACCESS TO MORGAN ROAD. JUST MINUTES AWAY FROM MICRON. PUBLIC WATER AVAILABLE AT PROPERTY. MUILI FAMILY HOME IS LOCATED ON THE PROPERTY WITH 3 UNITS.

17. 2025-10-30
    status Active 174-char remark

    Show marketing remark (174 chars)

    4 ACRES OF LAND WITH FULL ACCESS TO MORGAN ROAD. JUST MINUTES AWAY FROM MICRON. PUBLIC WATER AVAILABLE AT PROPERTY. MUILI FAMILY HOME IS LOCATED ON THE PROPERTY WITH 3 UNITS.

18. 2025-10-30
    status Active 174-char remark

    Show marketing remark (174 chars)

    4 ACRES OF LAND WITH FULL ACCESS TO MORGAN ROAD. JUST MINUTES AWAY FROM MICRON. PUBLIC WATER AVAILABLE AT PROPERTY. MUILI FAMILY HOME IS LOCATED ON THE PROPERTY WITH 3 UNITS.

19. 2025-10-30
    price $429,900 174-char remark

    Show marketing remark (174 chars)

    4 ACRES OF LAND WITH FULL ACCESS TO MORGAN ROAD. JUST MINUTES AWAY FROM MICRON. PUBLIC WATER AVAILABLE AT PROPERTY. MUILI FAMILY HOME IS LOCATED ON THE PROPERTY WITH 3 UNITS.

20. 2023-12-27
    status Pending 174-char remark

    Show marketing remark (174 chars)

    4 ACRES OF LAND WITH FULL ACCESS TO MORGAN ROAD. JUST MINUTES AWAY FROM MICRON. PUBLIC WATER AVAILABLE AT PROPERTY. MUILI FAMILY HOME IS LOCATED ON THE PROPERTY WITH 3 UNITS.

21. 2023-12-27
    status Pending 174-char remark

    Show marketing remark (174 chars)

    4 ACRES OF LAND WITH FULL ACCESS TO MORGAN ROAD. JUST MINUTES AWAY FROM MICRON. PUBLIC WATER AVAILABLE AT PROPERTY. MUILI FAMILY HOME IS LOCATED ON THE PROPERTY WITH 3 UNITS.

22. 2023-12-19
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show 174-char remark

    Show marketing remark (174 chars)

    4 ACRES OF LAND WITH FULL ACCESS TO MORGAN ROAD. JUST MINUTES AWAY FROM MICRON. PUBLIC WATER AVAILABLE AT PROPERTY. MUILI FAMILY HOME IS LOCATED ON THE PROPERTY WITH 3 UNITS.

23. 2023-12-19
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show 174-char remark

    Show marketing remark (174 chars)

    4 ACRES OF LAND WITH FULL ACCESS TO MORGAN ROAD. JUST MINUTES AWAY FROM MICRON. PUBLIC WATER AVAILABLE AT PROPERTY. MUILI FAMILY HOME IS LOCATED ON THE PROPERTY WITH 3 UNITS.

24. 2023-12-19
    price $429,900 174-char remark

    Show marketing remark (174 chars)

    4 ACRES OF LAND WITH FULL ACCESS TO MORGAN ROAD. JUST MINUTES AWAY FROM MICRON. PUBLIC WATER AVAILABLE AT PROPERTY. MUILI FAMILY HOME IS LOCATED ON THE PROPERTY WITH 3 UNITS.

25. 2023-09-28
    listed $299,000 Active 174-char remark

    Show marketing remark (174 chars)

    4 ACRES OF LAND WITH FULL ACCESS TO MORGAN ROAD. JUST MINUTES AWAY FROM MICRON. PUBLIC WATER AVAILABLE AT PROPERTY. MUILI FAMILY HOME IS LOCATED ON THE PROPERTY WITH 3 UNITS.

26. 2023-09-25
    price $299,000 174-char remark

    Show marketing remark (174 chars)

    4 ACRES OF LAND WITH FULL ACCESS TO MORGAN ROAD. JUST MINUTES AWAY FROM MICRON. PUBLIC WATER AVAILABLE AT PROPERTY. MUILI FAMILY HOME IS LOCATED ON THE PROPERTY WITH 3 UNITS.

27. 2023-08-10
    price $599,000 174-char remark

    Show marketing remark (174 chars)

    4 ACRES OF LAND WITH FULL ACCESS TO MORGAN ROAD. JUST MINUTES AWAY FROM MICRON. PUBLIC WATER AVAILABLE AT PROPERTY. MUILI FAMILY HOME IS LOCATED ON THE PROPERTY WITH 3 UNITS.

28. 2023-06-05
    listed $649,900 Active 174-char remark

    Show marketing remark (174 chars)

    4 ACRES OF LAND WITH FULL ACCESS TO MORGAN ROAD. JUST MINUTES AWAY FROM MICRON. PUBLIC WATER AVAILABLE AT PROPERTY. MUILI FAMILY HOME IS LOCATED ON THE PROPERTY WITH 3 UNITS.

29. 2023-03-13
    soldstatus $60,000
30. 2022-06-08
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show
31. 2022-06-07
    historical
32. 2022-05-27
    price $189,900
33. 2022-03-19
    listed $199,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,132 · $678/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,132 · $678/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $78,300
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$8,132
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,264
• − Management: −$6,264
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable income: $21,688
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,205
• After-tax cash flow: $21,416/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liverpool Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3617520
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $59,134
• Composite: 42.84/100
• National rank: #3134
• State rank: #381 of 590 in NY

Livability — Sand Ridge

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #926
• US rank: #18073

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,094

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 10% Black 3% Asian 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -235.12%
• Current HPI: 326.7838
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+99.6% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $399,000 CNYIS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $399,000 CNYIS
• 2025-10-30 Relisted — CNYIS
• 2025-10-30 Relisted — CNYIS
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $429,900 CNYIS
• 2023-12-27 Pending — CNYIS
• 2023-12-27 Pending — CNYIS
• 2023-12-19 Pending — CNYIS
• 2023-12-19 Pending — CNYIS
• 2023-12-19 Price Changed $429,900 CNYIS
• 2023-09-28 Listed $299,000 CNYIS
• 2023-09-25 Price Changed $299,000 CNYIS
• 2023-08-10 Price Changed $599,000 CNYIS
• 2023-06-05 Listed $649,900 CNYIS
• 2023-03-13 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2022-06-08 Pending — CNYIS
• 2022-06-07 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2022-05-27 Price Changed $189,900 CNYIS
• 2022-03-19 Listed $199,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+25.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,132 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.