315 Messer Loop Rd

Long Creek, NC 28425

$132,865C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 886 sqft · Built 1997 · Other · Active · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,250/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$697
• Tax + insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $200/mo
• Annual: $2,402/yr
• Cap rate: 8.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.46%
• DSCR: 1.29
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $37,202

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $133k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $200 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (5.9% below list).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $125k (5.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $919 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pender County Schools (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #66 of 178 in NC (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Malpass Corner Elementary (math 27% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,410 statewide, top 82%, 480 students, 89% FRL); West Pender Middle (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #374 of 475 statewide, top 80%, 179 students, 86% FRL); Pender High (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #393 of 535 statewide, top 75%, 677 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 47% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pender County Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 943 units permitted in Pender County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pender County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $133k implies a 291% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 92% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.