315 Messer Loop Rd · Long Creek, NC 28425

$132,865

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 886 sqft · Other · 8 Days on market

Built 1997 1.06 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SINGLEWIDE MANUFACTURED HOME ON OVER AN ACRE, FULLY FENCED, BEAUTIFULLY LANDSCAPED, HUGE FENCED DOG HOME, MANY BUILT-INS, 14X21 POLE BARN, PORCH.

Key facts

• New roof
• 1.06 acre lot
• Built 1997

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW LIVING ROOM FLOORING
• WALL UNIT HEATING AND AIR

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No dedicated parking
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story (entry level on 1st floor); One level
• Construction: Aluminum and vinyl siding with frame construction; Shingle roof; Built on crawl space
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rear porch; Has a view

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace (electric); Wall/window cooling units
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $133k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $200 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (5.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $125k (5.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pender County Schools (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #66 of 178 in NC (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Malpass Corner Elementary (math 27% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,410 statewide, top 82%, 480 students, 89% FRL); West Pender Middle (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #374 of 475 statewide, top 80%, 179 students, 86% FRL); Pender High (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #393 of 535 statewide, top 75%, 677 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 47% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pender County Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 943 units permitted in Pender County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $919 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pender County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $133k implies a 291% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 92% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,033 (5.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.46%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-8,842
• Equity at exit: $19,811

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $8,467
• Equity at exit: $11,488

Cash invested: $37,202 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28425

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$697
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $426/yr
• Insurance: −$55
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $200

Break-even live

Break-even rent $997

Max offer price $132,865

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,216
• Closing costs: $3,986
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $132,865 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $132,865 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $132,865 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $132,865 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $132,865 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 229-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $132,865 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $426 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,089 · $91/mo
• Expected delta: +$664/yr (+$55/mo · 155.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 92% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,004
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,443
• − Property taxes: −$426
• − Insurance: −$664
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,200
• − Management: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$3,865
• Taxable income: $206
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$49
• After-tax cash flow: $2,353/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pender County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703570
• Math proficiency: 49% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $45,792
• Composite: 41.97/100
• National rank: #3342
• State rank: #66 of 178 in NC

Livability — Long Creek

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,823

Population outlook (Pender County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 69,295 people
• By 2030: 74,990 · +8.2%
• By 2040: 85,954 · +24.0%
• By 2050: 95,925 · +38.4%
• By 2075: 117,525 · +69.6%
• By 2100: 129,074 · +86.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Pender

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.0) · D 32.1% · R 67.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.4pp toward R · 2008: -15.6pp · 2024: -35.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.0 2020: R+29.9 2016: R+30.4 2012: R+20.4 2008: R+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.03%
• Current HPI: 220.2477
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+249.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $132,865 Hive MLS
• 2000-11-01 Sold (MLS) $34,000 Hive MLS
• 2000-07-31 Listed $38,000 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $426 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.