4 bd · 3.0 ba ·
2,308 sqft ·
Built 2015
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 9 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,913/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,176
Tax + insurance
−$340
HOA
−$130
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$612
Net cashflow
$-345/mo
Annual
$-4,144/yr
Cap rate
5.29%
Cash-on-cash
-3.57%
DSCR
0.84
1% rule
0.70%
Cash to close
$116,200
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $415k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-345 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $354k (14.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (29.8% below list).
Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $291k (29.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 78/100 on livability (#23 in CO, #2,639 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living C-, crime F.
El Paso County Colorado School District 49 (urban): math 27% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #27 of 86 in CO (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Woodmen Hills Elementary School (math 24% / reading 64%, grade F, #277 of 966 statewide, top 31%, 609 students, 24% FRL); Falcon Middle School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #154 of 270 statewide, top 59%, 937 students, 27% FRL); Falcon High School (math 32% / reading 67%, grade D, #115 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 1,248 students, 23% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 523 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,906 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (872 in 5+ unit buildings).
El Paso County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $355k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.3% in Colorado Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-QMW7JKCFB0V79W
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29