5657 29th Street Cir E

West Samoset, FL 34203

$399,900D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,010 sqft · Built 1991 · SingleFamily · Active · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,133/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax + insurance: −$333
• HOA: −$70
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$658
• Net cashflow: $-25/mo
• Annual: $-299/yr
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.27%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $111,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-25 ($-299/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $396k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $313k (21.7% below list).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($388k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $313k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#342 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 384 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $202k; list at $400k implies a 98% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.9% in West Samoset — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• At $3,133/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 1469% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.