5657 29th Street Cir E · West Samoset, FL 34203

$399,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,010 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1991 7,797 sqft lot Est $460k · 13% under $70/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.4/15.0
• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice, Lakeview Home. Newer Roof, A/C, Appliances. Freezer Included. Pool Bath & Room For Pool. All Br Have Walk In's. Floor To Ceiling Stone Fire Place. Oversized Double Garage. Some Furniture Nego.

Key facts

• Pond view
• Community pool
• Screened lanai

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• POND VIEW
• SCREENED LANAI
• COMMUNITY POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Zoned PDR
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Casey Management); HOA fees $425 semi-annually (approx. $70.83/month); HOA fee required; Pets allowed: cats and dogs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Phone available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces east
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built with public records building area of 2,748 square feet
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Pond frontage (75 feet); On waterfront (pond); Irrigation equipment

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Thermostat; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup (electric); Laundry room (inside)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-25 ($-299/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $396k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $313k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $313k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.9% in West Samoset — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#342 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 384 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,133/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 1469% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($388k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $202k; list at $400k implies a 98% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $313,298 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.27%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $460,290
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3109 57th Avenue Cir E	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,914 (-5%)	2mo	$338,000	$177	86
5717 28th St E	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,886 (-6%)	2mo	$490,000	$260	74
5753 33rd St E	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,884 (-6%)	4mo	$439,500	$233	74
3120 58th Ter E	0.24mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,958 (-3%)	3mo	$460,000	$235	73
5714 Garden Lakes Fern	0.45mi	3/2.0	2,078 (+3%)	2mo	$366,000	$176	71
5502 Garden Lakes Oak	0.51mi	3/2.0	2,024 (+1%)	8mo	$238,000	$118	68
5810 31st Ct E	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,787 (-11%)	6mo	$515,000	$288	66
3605 Garden Lakes Clenet	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,894 (-6%)	9mo	$278,000	$147	61
5542 34th Ct E	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,716 (-15%)	5mo	$420,000	$245	55
6009 Cedarwood Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,812 (-10%)	4mo	$415,000	$229	49
3817 Garden Lakes Estates Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,806 (-10%)	2mo	$385,000	$213	48
6005 Cedarwood Ln	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,212 (+10%)	6mo	$400,000	$181	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-75,682
• Equity at exit: $59,626

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-103,893
• Equity at exit: $34,576

Cash invested: $111,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34203

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 384
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,133 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,994/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$70
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$658
• Net cashflow: $-25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,164

Max offer price $395,504

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $201	-5% $88	+0% $-25	+5% $-138	+10% $-251
Rent	-10% $-272	-5% $-149	+0% $-25	+5% $99	+10% $223
Rate	-1.0pp $177	-0.5pp $77	base $-25	+0.5pp $-129	+1.0pp $-234

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,975
• Closing costs: $11,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5631 29th St E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1868	$3,995	$2.14	24d	1	0.14mi
5847 28th Ln E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1900	$2,700	$1.42	24d	1	0.24mi
3601 Garden Lakes Clenet Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1798	$3,000	$1.67	17d	1	0.49mi
5534 Spanish Moss Cv Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1716	$2,500	$1.46	15d	1	0.66mi
5534 Spanish Moss Cv Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1706	$2,500	$1.47	24d	1	0.66mi
5429 Spanish Moss Cv Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2046	$2,600	$1.27	15d	1	0.74mi
6141 36th Ln E Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	1942	$2,800	$1.44	17d	1	0.83mi
5030 26th St E Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1101	$2,395	$2.17	24d	12	0.93mi
4103 61st Ave E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2287	$2,750	$1.20	24d	1	0.94mi
5009 25th St E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1478	$2,325	$1.57	4d	1	1.04mi
6615 35th Ct E Sarasota, FL	3.0	2.0	2065	$3,250	$1.57	24d	1	1.31mi
4509 30th Ln E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1858	$2,550	$1.37	4d	1	1.35mi
6222 45th Ln E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2311	$2,800	$1.21	24d	1	1.38mi
6188 46th St E Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2330	$3,995	$1.71	17d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $70 · $840/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,900 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,900 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,900 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,900 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,900 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,900 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $399,900 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,900 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,900 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $399,900 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,900 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,900 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,900 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,900 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    listed $399,900 Active
16. 2004-07-16
    soldstatus $202,000
17. 2004-06-18
    soldstatus $202,000 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (221 chars)

    Nice, newer lake view home. Newer roof, A/C, appliances, freezer included. Pool bath & room for pool. All BR have walk in's. Floor to ceiling stone F. Place. Oversized double garage. Soome of the furnitu re in neog.

18. 2004-06-18
    soldstatus $202,000 221-char remark

    Show marketing remark (221 chars)

    Nice, newer lake view home. Newer roof, A/C, appliances, freezer included. Pool bath & room for pool. All BR have walk in's. Floor to ceiling stone F. Place. Oversized double garage. Soome of the furnitu re in neog.

19. 2004-04-12
    listed $206,900 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (221 chars)

    Nice, newer lake view home. Newer roof, A/C, appliances, freezer included. Pool bath & room for pool. All BR have walk in's. Floor to ceiling stone F. Place. Oversized double garage. Soome of the furnitu re in neog.

20. 2004-04-12
    listed $206,900 221-char remark

    Show marketing remark (221 chars)

    Nice, newer lake view home. Newer roof, A/C, appliances, freezer included. Pool bath & room for pool. All BR have walk in's. Floor to ceiling stone F. Place. Oversized double garage. Soome of the furnitu re in neog.

21. 1991-03-19
    soldstatus $66,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,994 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,319 · $277/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,325/yr (+$110/mo · 66.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,596
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,401
• − Property taxes: −$1,994
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,008
• − Management: −$3,008
• − HOA: −$840
• − Depreciation: −$11,633
• Taxable loss: −$7,287
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,749
• After-tax cash flow: $1,450/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — West Samoset

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #342
• US rank: #5939

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,840
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,618
• Household income: $70,761
• Rent vs Own: 27.3% rent · 72.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1469.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12% Black 9% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Vietnamese 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.87%
• Current HPI: 295.8871
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.97%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+505.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $399,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-07-16 Sold (Public Records) $202,000 Public Records
• 2004-06-18 Sold (MLS) $202,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-06-18 Sold (MLS) $202,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-04-12 Listed $206,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-04-12 Listed $206,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1991-03-19 Sold (Public Records) $66,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,994 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.