155 Southern Oaks Dr

Lyons, TX 77879

$250,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,774 sqft · Built 1964 · SingleFamily · Active · 161 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,563/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$305
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $-381/mo
• Annual: $-4,576/yr
• Cap rate: 4.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.54%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-381 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $183k (26.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (37.5% below list).
• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $156k (37.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Somerville ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #579 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 221 active listings in the ZIP; 44 units permitted in Burleson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 93% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.