155 Southern Oaks Dr · Lyons, TX 77879

$250,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,774 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 161 Days on market

Built 1964 0.60 ac lot $141/sqft · 10% below area Est $314k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICED TO SELL! Welcome to this beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 2,017 sq. ft. of comfortable living space on a spacious 0.6-acre corner lot. Each bedroom features generous closet space, while the updated bathrooms showcase a new vanity, countertops, & shower upgrades. Master bath has a new exclusive hot water tank. The kitchen provides abundant counter & cabinet space, along with a brand new dishwasher-ideal for both everyday living & entertaining. Major improvements include seamless gutters with leaf guard (2024), premium roof (2025), & high-quality, energy-efficient Pella windows (2025) with sound-control glass for added comfort. Outside, enjoy three driveways & ample space for an RV, boat, or gatherings under beautiful mature trees. Conveniently located just 20 miles from Bryan/College Station & Brenham, 13 miles from Caldwell, and minutes from Lake Somerville, this property offers the perfect balance of space, upgrades, and location-ready.

Key facts

• Seamless gutters
• New vanity
• New counter tops

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• NEW VANITY
• NEW COUNTER TOPS
• NEW SHOWER
• AMPLE STORAGE CAPACITY
• SEAMLESS GUTTERS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-381 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $183k (26.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (37.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $156k (37.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Somerville ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #579 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 221 active listings in the ZIP; 44 units permitted in Burleson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 93% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $156,274 (37.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.54%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $314,182
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -20.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.2% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-17,150
• Equity at exit: $88,014

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $3,670
• Equity at exit: $119,055

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77879

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 221
• Price-to-rent: 13.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,563 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$201 /mo · $2,409/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $-381

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,045

Max offer price $182,633

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-240	-5% $-311	+0% $-381	+5% $-452	+10% $-523
Rent	-10% $-505	-5% $-443	+0% $-381	+5% $-320	+10% $-258
Rate	-1.0pp $-255	-0.5pp $-318	base $-381	+0.5pp $-446	+1.0pp $-512

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $250,000 Active 161 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 160 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 159 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 158 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 157 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $250,000 Active 155 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $250,000 Active 154 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 151 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 150 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $250,000 Active 149 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $250,000 Active 146 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 145 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 144 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 143 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 142 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $250,000 Active 141 DOM
17. 2026-03-04
    price $250,000 1014-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1004 chars)

    PRICED TO SELL! Welcome to this beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 2,017 sq.ft. of comfortable living space on a spacious 0.6-acre corner lot. Each bedroom features generous closet space, while the updated bathrooms showcase a new vanity, countertops, & shower upgrades. Master bath has a new exclusive hot water tank. The kitchen provides abundant counter & cabinet space, along with a brand new dishwasher-ideal for both everyday living & entertaining. Major improvements include seamless gutters with leaf guard (2024), premium roof (2025), & high-quality, energy-efficient Pella windows (2025) with sound-control glass for added comfort. Outside, enjoy three driveways & ample space for an RV, boat, or gatherings under beautiful mature trees. Conveniently located just 20 miles from Bryan/College Station & Brenham, 13 miles from Caldwell, and minutes from Lake Somerville, this property offers the perfect balance of space, upgrades, and location-ready.

18. 2026-03-04
    price $250,000 1004-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1004 chars)

    PRICED TO SELL! Welcome to this beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 2,017 sq.ft. of comfortable living space on a spacious 0.6-acre corner lot. Each bedroom features generous closet space, while the updated bathrooms showcase a new vanity, countertops, & shower upgrades. Master bath has a new exclusive hot water tank. The kitchen provides abundant counter & cabinet space, along with a brand new dishwasher-ideal for both everyday living & entertaining. Major improvements include seamless gutters with leaf guard (2024), premium roof (2025), & high-quality, energy-efficient Pella windows (2025) with sound-control glass for added comfort. Outside, enjoy three driveways & ample space for an RV, boat, or gatherings under beautiful mature trees. Conveniently located just 20 miles from Bryan/College Station & Brenham, 13 miles from Caldwell, and minutes from Lake Somerville, this property offers the perfect balance of space, upgrades, and location-ready.

19. 2026-01-09
    listed $265,000 Active 1004-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1004 chars)

    PRICED TO SELL! Welcome to this beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 2,017 sq.ft. of comfortable living space on a spacious 0.6-acre corner lot. Each bedroom features generous closet space, while the updated bathrooms showcase a new vanity, countertops, & shower upgrades. Master bath has a new exclusive hot water tank. The kitchen provides abundant counter & cabinet space, along with a brand new dishwasher-ideal for both everyday living & entertaining. Major improvements include seamless gutters with leaf guard (2024), premium roof (2025), & high-quality, energy-efficient Pella windows (2025) with sound-control glass for added comfort. Outside, enjoy three driveways & ample space for an RV, boat, or gatherings under beautiful mature trees. Conveniently located just 20 miles from Bryan/College Station & Brenham, 13 miles from Caldwell, and minutes from Lake Somerville, this property offers the perfect balance of space, upgrades, and location-ready.

20. 2026-01-07
    listed $265,000 Active 1014-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1014 chars)

    PRICED TO SELL! Welcome to this beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 2,017 sq. ft. of comfortable living space on a spacious 0.6-acre corner lot. Each bedroom features generous closet space, while the updated bathrooms showcase a new vanity, countertops, & shower upgrades. Master bath has a new exclusive hot water tank. The kitchen provides abundant counter & cabinet space, along with a brand new dishwasher-ideal for both everyday living & entertaining. Major improvements include seamless gutters with leaf guard (2024), premium roof (2025), & high-quality, energy-efficient Pella windows (2025) with sound-control glass for added comfort. Outside, enjoy three driveways & ample space for an RV, boat, or gatherings under beautiful mature trees. Conveniently located just 20 miles from Bryan/College Station & Brenham, 13 miles from Caldwell, and minutes from Lake Somerville, this property offers the perfect balance of space, upgrades, and location-ready.

21. 2023-11-07
    soldstatus
22. 2023-11-03
    soldstatus Closed
23. 2023-10-13
    status Pending
24. 2023-09-12
    listed $175,000 Active
25. 2003-05-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,409 · $201/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,575 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,166/yr (+$181/mo · 89.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 93% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,753
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$2,409
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,500
• − Management: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$9,183
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,204
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,372/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Somerville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840770
• Math proficiency: 36% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,453
• Composite: 27.59/100
• National rank: #6936
• State rank: #579 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lyons

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lyons, TX
• City population: 370
• Population (ZIP): 4,775

Population outlook (Burleson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,066 people
• By 2030: 18,174 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 18,198 · +0.7%
• By 2050: 18,110 · +0.2%
• By 2075: 18,166 · +0.6%
• By 2100: 16,949 · -6.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 15% Black 14% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 14% Vietnamese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burleson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.8) · D 18.2% · R 81.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.4pp · 2024: -62.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.8 2020: R+57.6 2016: R+55.1 2012: R+46.0 2008: R+37.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.20%
• Current HPI: 178.3416
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+42.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $250,000 BCSRMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-09 Listed $265,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-07 Listed $265,000 BCSRMLS
• 2023-11-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-11-03 Sold (MLS) — BCSRMLS
• 2023-10-13 Pending — BCSRMLS
• 2023-09-12 Listed $175,000 BCSRMLS
• 2003-05-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,409 · +24.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.