4123 Pinon Ln #60

Evans, CO 80620

$124,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Built 2001 · Manufactured · Active · 58 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,995/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$650
• Tax + insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $832/mo
• Annual: $9,989/yr
• Cap rate: 14.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.77%
• DSCR: 2.28
• 1% rule: 1.61%
• Cash to close: $34,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $124k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $832 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $124k).
• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($120k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $120k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $857 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#104 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Greeleyschool District No. 6 In The County Of Weld And Sta (urban): math 15% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #71 of 86 in CO (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Chappelow K-8 Magnet School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #357 of 966 statewide, top 40%, 687 students, 61% FRL); Greeley West High School (math 20% / reading 39%, grade F, #244 of 381 statewide, top 66%, 1,885 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 120 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,170 units permitted in Weld County in 2024 (278 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Weld County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $124k implies a 398% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 14.3% vs local median 3.8% in Evans — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.