4123 Pinon Ln #60 · Evans, CO 80620

$124,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Manufactured public records · 58 Days on market

Built 2001 Est $95k · 30% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

An investor's dream or the perfect low maintenance primary residence. This 3 bed 2 bath is partially furnished with an open-concept living and dining area. Great natural light and functional layout ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Whether you are a first-time buyer looking for affordable entry into homeownership, someone looking to downsize without sacrificing comfort, relocating, or seeking a smart investment - this property checks all the boxes. Located in The Cave Creek Community you'll have access to a pool, fitness center, clubhouse, dog park, two playgrounds, and a basketball court. This property you don't want to miss. Financing available through 21st Mortgage Corporation

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Clubhouse
• Natural light

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• NATURAL LIGHT
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• ACCESS TO POOL
• FITNESS CENTER
• CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Privately maintained road; 500-year floodplain / B or X flood rating

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; No designated parking features listed
• Utilities: City water (meter installed); Public sewer; Electricity available; Gas service by Atmos
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home); House faces east
• Construction: Composition roof; Construction materials: Other; Storage structure on property
• Exterior features: Deck; Land lease

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 three-quarter bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Separate dining room; Open floorplan; Some furniture included
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $124k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $832 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $124k).
• Recommended offer: $120k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.3% vs local median 3.8% in Evans — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#104 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Greeleyschool District No. 6 In The County Of Weld And Sta (urban): math 15% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #71 of 86 in CO (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Chappelow K-8 Magnet School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #357 of 966 statewide, top 40%, 687 students, 61% FRL); Greeley West High School (math 20% / reading 39%, grade F, #244 of 381 statewide, top 66%, 1,885 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 120 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,170 units permitted in Weld County in 2024 (278 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $857 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Weld County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($120k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $124k implies a 398% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $120,280 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.77%
• DSCR: 2.28
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $95,040
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3340 Yucca Cir	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+2%)	3mo	$72,000	$59	88
4210 Cedar Ln #185	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+2%)	4mo	$99,500	$82	88
3116 Foxtail Ln	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,186 (-0%)	8mo	$97,000	$82	82
2920 Foxtail Ln #334	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+2%)	1mo	$86,000	$71	80
3077 Yarrow Cir	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,140 (-4%)	3mo	$91,000	$80	79
3308 Antelope Way #279	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+2%)	8mo	$95,000	$78	79
4304 Wapiti Way #249	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+4%)	9mo	$75,000	$61	78
3366 Bluegrass Cir	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+4%)	16mo	$119,000	$97	76
4324 Buffalo Trl	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+2%)	7mo	$65,000	$53	72
3301 Coyote Ln #26	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+13%)	3mo	$115,000	$86	69
3400 Yucca Cir #218	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+13%)	7mo	$120,000	$89	64
3500 35th Ave #193	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,064 (-10%)	14mo	$69,500	$65	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $27,035
• Equity at exit: $18,489

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.99×
• Total profit: $69,052
• Equity at exit: $10,721

Cash invested: $34,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80620

• Home prices YoY: -20.9%
• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,995 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$650
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $500/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $832

Break-even live

Break-even rent $941

Max offer price $124,000

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $903	-5% $867	+0% $832	+5% $797	+10% $762
Rent	-10% $675	-5% $754	+0% $832	+5% $911	+10% $990
Rate	-1.0pp $895	-0.5pp $864	base $832	+0.5pp $800	+1.0pp $768

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,000
• Closing costs: $3,720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3770 Ponderosa Ct #1 Evans, CO	2.0	2.0	1047	$1,650	$1.58	24d	1	0.67mi
2846 Arbor Dr #2898 Evans, CO	2.0	1.5–2.0	1327	$1,738	$1.31	14d	3	0.68mi
3301 Abbey Rd Evans, CO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	913	$2,112	$2.31	14d	10	1.00mi
2506 32nd St Evans, CO	2.0–3.0	2.0	1155	$2,025	$1.75	24d	1	1.11mi
1751 Rowan Ln Evans, CO	2.0	1.5	841	$1,750	$2.08	14d	1	1.31mi
1725 Rowan Ln Evans, CO	3.0	1.5	1190	$2,099	$1.76	14d	1	1.36mi
4620 Tuscany St Evans, CO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1016	$2,350	$2.31	24d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $124,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $124,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $124,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $124,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $124,000 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $124,000 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $124,000 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-04-20
    listed $124,000 Active
16. 2015-01-02
    historical
17. 2014-12-01
    status Active
18. 2014-11-22
    status Active - Backup
19. 2014-07-08
    listed $34,900 Active
20. 2010-07-13
    soldstatus $24,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $500 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $682 · $57/mo
• Expected delta: +$182/yr (+$15/mo · 36.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,939
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,946
• − Property taxes: −$500
• − Insurance: −$620
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,915
• − Management: −$1,915
• − Depreciation: −$3,607
• Taxable income: $8,435
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,025
• After-tax cash flow: $7,964/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greeleyschool District No. 6 In The County Of Weld And Sta
• NCES district ID: 0804410
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,417
• Composite: 19.99/100
• National rank: #8667
• State rank: #71 of 86 in CO

Livability — Evans

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #104
• US rank: #9005

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime C- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Evans, CO
• County: Weld County · 332,652 people
• City population: 20,798
• Metro: Greeley, CO
• Population (ZIP): 20,798
• Household income: $73,590
• Rent vs Own: 32.5% rent · 67.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 420.0

Population outlook (Weld County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 351,957 people
• By 2030: 385,304 · +9.5%
• By 2040: 451,818 · +28.4%
• By 2050: 514,478 · +46.2%
• By 2075: 648,733 · +84.3%
• By 2100: 720,400 · +104.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 45% Two or more races 17% Black 2% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 31% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Weld

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.0) · D 38.2% · R 59.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.0 2020: R+18.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+13.2 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.36%
• Current HPI: 330.6379
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.78%
• Metro: Greeley, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

+398.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $124,000 IRES
• 2015-01-02 Listing Removed — IRES
• 2014-12-01 Relisted — IRES
• 2014-11-22 Pending — IRES
• 2014-07-08 Listed $34,900 IRES
• 2010-07-13 Sold (Public Records) $24,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $500 · +437.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.