1020 Noe St

San Francisco, CA 94114

$448,000B-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 659 sqft · Built 1900 · Condo · Active · 63 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,989/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,349
• Tax + insurance: −$371
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$838
• Net cashflow: $431/mo
• Annual: $5,174/yr
• Cap rate: 7.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.12%
• DSCR: 1.18
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $125,440

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $448k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $431 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $399k (10.9% below list).
• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($421k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $399k (10.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $46k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $43k appreciation (9.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.4%/yr); 116 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $92k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (9.5% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $125k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$73k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.