1020 Noe St · San Francisco, CA 94114

$448,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 659 sqft · Condo public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1900 $680/sqft · 49% below area Est $847k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.8/10.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Huge Price Reduction! This lower-level condominium can be purchased individually or as part of a rare three-residence offering, including 1016 Noe St #B, 1018 Noe St, and 1020 Noe St, currently available together at a combined price of $2,500,000, or approximately $722 per square foot. The property is part of a four-unit condominium building, with the fourth residence also available, presenting a unique opportunity for expanded investment, multi-generational living, or long-term value in one of San Francisco's most desirable neighborhoods. Currently tenant-occupied, this residence offers a clean, individually titled unit, well suited for investors seeking immediate income with long-term upside. No interior photos are provided out of respect for the tenant's privacy. Ideally situated in the heart of Noe Valley, moments from Whole Foods Market, the vibrant 24th Street corridor, and the neighborhood's best cafs and boutiques.

Key facts

• Heart of noe valley
• 24th street corridor
• Built 1900

Tags

• INDIVIDUALLY TITLED RESIDENCE
• HEART OF NOE VALLEY
• STEPS FROM WHOLE FOODS
• 24TH STREET CORRIDOR
• BEST CAFES AND BOUTIQUES

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $448,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$847,246) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $448k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $431 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $399k (10.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $399k (10.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.4%/yr); 116 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $46k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $43k appreciation (9.5% local appreciation)).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (9.5% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $125k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$73k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($421k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $92k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $398,949 (10.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.12%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $847,246
• List price: $448,000
• Delta: -47.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

9.51% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.21×
• Total profit: $277,324
• Equity at exit: $387,589

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.72×
• Total profit: $843,353
• Equity at exit: $819,386

Cash invested: $125,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City San Francisco: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+57

SF Rent Ordinance + Eviction Protections; relocation $10k+; one of strictest in US.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94114

• Home prices YoY: 4.4%
• Rents YoY: 14.4%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,989 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,349
• Tax from tax record: −$184 /mo · $2,214/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$838
• Net cashflow: $431

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,444

Max offer price $448,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,000
• Closing costs: $13,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
457 Jersey St Unit 5 San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$4,495	$6.42	5d	1	0.27mi
457 Jersey St Unit 5 San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$4,495	$6.42	13d	1	0.27mi
1643 Castro St Apt 6 San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	563	$3,695	$6.56	8d	1	0.33mi
1351-1373 Noe St Unit 1363 San Francisco, CA	—	1.0	360	$2,395	$6.65	44d	1	0.40mi
1 Homestead San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$6,900	$9.20	24d	1	0.43mi
169 Fair Oaks St Unit 01 San Francisco, CA	2.0	2.0	750	$4,250	$5.67	44d	1	0.45mi
3410 22nd St Apt 6 San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0	720	$4,500	$6.25	2d	1	0.49mi
940 Guerrero St Unit 02 San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	550	$4,295	$7.81	17d	1	0.50mi
940 Guerrero St Unit 06 San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	520	$4,295	$8.26	24d	1	0.51mi
155 Eureka St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	650	$4,300	$6.62	24d	1	0.57mi
155 Eureka St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	750	$5,000	$6.67	44d	1	0.57mi
35 Hill St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	674	$3,500	$5.19	8d	1	0.59mi
257 San Jose Ave #1 San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	500	$2,999	$6.00	24d	1	0.60mi
3321 21st St Apt 2 San Francisco, CA	—	1.0	350	$3,000	$8.57	3d	1	0.62mi
5285 Diamond Heights Blvd San Francisco, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	805	$4,297	$5.34	2d	5	0.68mi
3241 23rd St Unit 3245-4 San Francisco, CA	—	1.0	450	$2,550	$5.67	14d	1	0.81mi
3140 21st St Unit 103 San Francisco, CA	—	1.0	500	$2,795	$5.59	5d	1	0.84mi
2315 Mission St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	450	$2,995	$6.66	3d	1	0.86mi
2315 Mission St Unit 106 San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	450	$2,995	$6.66	8d	1	0.86mi
3178 16th St Unit 1 San Francisco, CA	—	1.0	369	$2,375	$6.44	5d	1	0.94mi
799 S Van Ness Ave San Francisco, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	740	$3,800	$5.14	2d	2	0.99mi
2629 Folsom St Unit 106 San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0	718	$4,395	$6.12	18d	1	0.99mi
2629 Folsom St Unit 105 San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	546	$3,100	$5.68	18d	1	0.99mi
2629 Folsom St Unit 204 San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0	718	$4,095	$5.70	44d	1	0.99mi
370 Upper Ter Unit 2 San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$4,400	$6.29	18d	1	1.02mi
218 Winfield St San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0	600	$3,200	$5.33	44d	1	1.04mi
1019 Ashbury St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	535	$3,790	$7.08	15d	1	1.10mi
429 14th St #1621 San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	500	$3,440	$6.88	44d	1	1.14mi
1600 15th St San Francisco, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	792	$4,164	$5.25	3d	5	1.15mi
2874 16th St Unit 2872A San Francisco, CA	—	1.0	400	$2,450	$6.12	44d	1	1.18mi
270 Valencia St #205 San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	500	$3,800	$7.60	44d	1	1.19mi
1801 Mission St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	446	$10,000	$22.42	44d	1	1.24mi
742 Chenery St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	750	$2,995	$3.99	24d	1	1.26mi
2823 18th St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	519	$4,718	$9.08	2d	4	1.32mi
155 Haight St San Francisco, CA	—	1.0	425	$2,295	$5.40	24d	1	1.41mi
68 McCoppin St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	734	$3,825	$5.21	17d	2	1.41mi
1000 Oak St Apt 7 San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	645	$3,995	$6.19	44d	1	1.43mi
1699 Market St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	561	$4,817	$8.59	2d	5	1.45mi
211 Genebern Way Unit 1309729P San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0	699	$7,773	$11.12	3d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $448,000 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $448,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $448,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $448,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $448,000 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $448,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $448,000 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $448,000 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $448,000 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $448,000 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $448,000 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $448,000 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $448,000 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $448,000 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-04
    price $448,000 936-char remark

    Show marketing remark (936 chars)

    Huge Price Reduction! This lower-level condominium can be purchased individually or as part of a rare three-residence offering, including 1016 Noe St #B, 1018 Noe St, and 1020 Noe St, currently available together at a combined price of $2,500,000, or approximately $722 per square foot. The property is part of a four-unit condominium building, with the fourth residence also available, presenting a unique opportunity for expanded investment, multi-generational living, or long-term value in one of San Francisco's most desirable neighborhoods. Currently tenant-occupied, this residence offers a clean, individually titled unit, well suited for investors seeking immediate income with long-term upside. No interior photos are provided out of respect for the tenant's privacy. Ideally situated in the heart of Noe Valley, moments from Whole Foods Market, the vibrant 24th Street corridor, and the neighborhood's best cafs and boutiques.

16. 2026-05-03
    price $540,000 936-char remark

    Show marketing remark (936 chars)

    Huge Price Reduction! This lower-level condominium can be purchased individually or as part of a rare three-residence offering, including 1016 Noe St #B, 1018 Noe St, and 1020 Noe St, currently available together at a combined price of $2,500,000, or approximately $722 per square foot. The property is part of a four-unit condominium building, with the fourth residence also available, presenting a unique opportunity for expanded investment, multi-generational living, or long-term value in one of San Francisco's most desirable neighborhoods. Currently tenant-occupied, this residence offers a clean, individually titled unit, well suited for investors seeking immediate income with long-term upside. No interior photos are provided out of respect for the tenant's privacy. Ideally situated in the heart of Noe Valley, moments from Whole Foods Market, the vibrant 24th Street corridor, and the neighborhood's best cafs and boutiques.

17. 2026-05-03
    price $448,000 936-char remark

    Show marketing remark (936 chars)

    Huge Price Reduction! This lower-level condominium can be purchased individually or as part of a rare three-residence offering, including 1016 Noe St #B, 1018 Noe St, and 1020 Noe St, currently available together at a combined price of $2,500,000, or approximately $722 per square foot. The property is part of a four-unit condominium building, with the fourth residence also available, presenting a unique opportunity for expanded investment, multi-generational living, or long-term value in one of San Francisco's most desirable neighborhoods. Currently tenant-occupied, this residence offers a clean, individually titled unit, well suited for investors seeking immediate income with long-term upside. No interior photos are provided out of respect for the tenant's privacy. Ideally situated in the heart of Noe Valley, moments from Whole Foods Market, the vibrant 24th Street corridor, and the neighborhood's best cafs and boutiques.

18. 2026-04-16
    listed $540,000 Active 936-char remark

    Show marketing remark (936 chars)

    Huge Price Reduction! This lower-level condominium can be purchased individually or as part of a rare three-residence offering, including 1016 Noe St #B, 1018 Noe St, and 1020 Noe St, currently available together at a combined price of $2,500,000, or approximately $722 per square foot. The property is part of a four-unit condominium building, with the fourth residence also available, presenting a unique opportunity for expanded investment, multi-generational living, or long-term value in one of San Francisco's most desirable neighborhoods. Currently tenant-occupied, this residence offers a clean, individually titled unit, well suited for investors seeking immediate income with long-term upside. No interior photos are provided out of respect for the tenant's privacy. Ideally situated in the heart of Noe Valley, moments from Whole Foods Market, the vibrant 24th Street corridor, and the neighborhood's best cafs and boutiques.

19. 2026-02-13
    listed $3,700,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,214 · $184/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,405 · $284/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,191/yr (+$99/mo · 53.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥78°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,874
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,095
• − Property taxes: −$2,214
• − Insurance: −$2,240
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,830
• − Management: −$3,830
• − Depreciation: −$13,033
• Taxable loss: −$2,367
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$568
• After-tax cash flow: $5,743/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Francisco Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634410
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $81,249
• Composite: 50.14/100
• National rank: #4088
• State rank: #322 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Francisco

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3143

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Francisco, CA
• County: San Francisco County · 827,552 people
• City population: 827,552
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,020
• Household income: $204,134
• Rent vs Own: 54.8% rent · 45.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1336.0

Population outlook (San Francisco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,030,936 people
• By 2030: 1,110,409 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 1,270,010 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 1,435,001 · +39.2%
• By 2075: 1,779,074 · +72.6%
• By 2100: 1,966,767 · +90.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Asian 14% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 4% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Francisco

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 80.3% · R 15.5% · Other 4.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 70.5pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+72.5 2016: D+76.1 2012: D+70.2 2008: D+70.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.51%
• Current HPI: 223.6988
• Rent YoY: ▲ 14.40%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-87.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $448,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $540,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $448,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $540,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $3,700,000 San Francisco MLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,214 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.