1380 Lincoln Ave

San Rafael, CA 94901

$3,450,000C-

36 bd · 54.0 ba · 5,130 sqft · Built 1965 · MultiFamily · Contingent (Show) · 96 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $33,575/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$18,092
• Tax + insurance: −$6,001
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$7,051
• Net cashflow: $2,431/mo
• Annual: $29,175/yr
• Cap rate: 7.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.02%
• DSCR: 1.13
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $966,000

Investor read

• This is a 9 × 4-bed/6.0-bath units multifamily listed at $3.45M. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($29k/yr) — positive. Per door: $270/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $3.36M (2.7% below list).
• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($3.14M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $3.14M (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $24k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $104k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#358 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• San Rafael City High (urban): math 43% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #126 of 517 in CA (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 134 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 149 units permitted in Marin County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marin County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $300k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 1.7% in San Rafael — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $33,575/mo this rent would consume 349% of the median local household income ($115k/yr) (locally 2382% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.