1380 Lincoln Ave · San Rafael, CA 94901

$3,450,000

36 bd · 54.0 ba · 5,130 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 96 Days on market

Built 1965 Excellent condition 9,500 sqft lot ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 9 units. confirmed

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

Positioned in the heart of San Rafael, 1380 Lincoln Avenue offers a rare opportunity to acquire a fully repositioned 9-unit asset in one of Marin County's most supply-constrained rental markets. Converted from office to residential use in 2023, the property delivers modern, low-maintenance living with strong in-place income already established. The unit mix3 studios, 4 one-bedrooms, and 2 two-bedroomscaters to a broad tenant base, while extensive renovations throughout provide turnkey ownership. Each unit features updated kitchens and baths, contemporary finishes, and upgraded systems, minimizing near-term capital expenditures. With 10 on-site parking spaces and leases structured with annua

Key facts

• Newer flooring
• Modern cabinetry
• Updated bathrooms

Tags

• RENOVATED APARTMENT COMPLEX
• MODERNIZED LIVING SPACES
• UPDATED KITCHENS
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• MODERN CABINETRY
• NEWER FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Parking for 10 vehicles
• Security: Smoke detectors, carbon monoxide detector and fire alarm; Double-strapped water heater
• Utilities: City utilities; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential income property; 5 or more units
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Balcony or deck (varies by unit); Enclosed patio (varies by unit); Front landscaping; Sidewalks; Automatic front and rear sprinkler

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Free-standing gas oven; Free-standing refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total of 9 units: includes studio units and one- and two-bedroom apartments; Four 1-bedroom units; Two studio units; Two-bedroom units present
• Flooring: Carpet; Simulated wood; Flooring varies by unit
• Bathrooms: Full bathrooms in each unit (including studio units)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Ceiling fans (some units)
• Interior features: Roll-in shower; Updated/remodeled condition; Carbon monoxide detector, fire alarm and smoke detectors; Double-strapped water heater
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in each unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 9 × 4-bed/6.0-bath units multifamily listed at $3.45M. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($29k/yr) — positive. Per door: $270/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $3.36M (2.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $3.14M (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 1.7% in San Rafael — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#358 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• San Rafael City High (urban): math 43% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #126 of 517 in CA (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 134 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 149 units permitted in Marin County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $33,575/mo this rent would consume 349% of the median local household income ($115k/yr) (locally 2382% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $24k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $104k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marin County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($3.14M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $300k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $3,139,500 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.02%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.69% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-345,489
• Equity at exit: $514,406

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $147,808
• Equity at exit: $298,293

Cash invested: $966,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94901

• Rents YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 77.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $33,575 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$18,092
• Tax from tax record: −$4,563 /mo · $54,760/yr
• Insurance: −$1,438
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$7,051
• Net cashflow: $2,431

Break-even live

Break-even rent $30,497

Max offer price $3,450,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $4,384	-5% $3,408	+0% $2,431	+5% $1,455	+10% $478
Rent	-10% $-221	-5% $1,105	+0% $2,431	+5% $3,757	+10% $5,084
Rate	-1.0pp $4,169	-0.5pp $3,309	base $2,431	+0.5pp $1,537	+1.0pp $628

9-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 9× units	4	6	$33,579
Total (9 units)			$33,575

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $862,500
• Closing costs: $103,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $3,450,000 Contingent (Show) 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $3,450,000 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $3,450,000 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $3,450,000 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $3,450,000 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $3,450,000 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $3,450,000 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $3,450,000 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $3,450,000 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $3,450,000 Active 79 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $3,450,000 Active 78 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $3,450,000 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $3,450,000 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $3,450,000 Active 75 DOM
15. 2026-04-23
    price $3,450,000
16. 2026-04-09
    price $3,520,000
17. 2026-03-17
    listed $3,750,000 Active
18. 2024-09-20
    status Active
19. 2024-07-26
    historical Contingent (Show)
20. 2024-04-19
    listed $3,875,000 Active
21. 2024-02-09
    price $3,950,000
22. 2024-01-01
    status Active
23. 2023-12-27
    status Active
24. 2023-11-15
    historical Contingent (No Show)
25. 2023-11-02
    price $3,995,000
26. 2023-06-27
    listed $4,230,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $54,760 · $4,563/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $54,760 · $4,563/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $402,900
• − Mortgage interest: −$193,254
• − Property taxes: −$54,760
• − Insurance: −$17,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$32,232
• − Management: −$32,232
• − Depreciation: −$100,364
• Taxable loss: −$27,191
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,526
• After-tax cash flow: $35,701/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This multi-family property is in excellent condition with modern finishes and minimal maintenance required. It offers a turnkey investment opportunity in a high-demand market.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Paint touch-ups — Maintains fresh appearance
• Both Appliance upgrades — Modernizes kitchen and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Paint touch-ups — Maintains fresh appearance ↑
• Both Appliance upgrades — Modernizes kitchen and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Rafael City High
• NCES district ID: 0635110
• Math proficiency: 43% ▲ 8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $84,104
• Composite: 45.58/100
• National rank: #2594
• State rank: #126 of 517 in CA

Livability — San Rafael

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #358
• US rank: #12194

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety B+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Rafael, CA
• County: Marin County · 243,328 people
• City population: 71,922
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,307
• Household income: $115,330
• Rent vs Own: 49.0% rent · 51.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2382.0

Population outlook (Marin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 276,379 people
• By 2030: 282,942 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 292,937 · +6.0%
• By 2050: 300,449 · +8.7%
• By 2075: 316,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 303,948 · +10.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 11% Asian 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 34% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+63.9) · D 80.6% · R 16.7% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.2pp toward D · 2008: 57.7pp · 2024: 63.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+63.9 2020: D+66.5 2016: D+62.9 2012: D+50.5 2008: D+57.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -871.51%
• Current HPI: 259.3897
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.69%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-18.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $3,450,000 BAREIS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $3,520,000 BAREIS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $3,750,000 BAREIS
• 2024-09-20 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2024-07-26 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2024-04-19 Listed $3,875,000 BAREIS
• 2024-02-09 Price Changed $3,950,000 BAREIS
• 2024-01-01 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2023-12-27 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2023-11-15 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2023-11-02 Price Changed $3,995,000 BAREIS
• 2023-06-27 Listed $4,230,000 BAREIS

Property tax history

+88.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $54,760 · +12.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.