415 Shipp Rd

Leary, TX 75561

$27,159B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · Built 1943 · SingleFamily · Active · 427 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $905/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$142
• Tax + insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$190
• Net cashflow: $534/mo
• Annual: $6,411/yr
• Cap rate: 29.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 84.30%
• DSCR: 4.75
• 1% rule: 3.33%
• Cash to close: $7,605

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $27k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $534 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($905 rent vs $27k).
• It's been on market 427 days — a 12% lower offer ($24k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $24k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $188 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $815 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#776 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Leary ISD (rural): math 20% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #1,006 of 1,141 in TX (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1943 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 137 units permitted in Bowie County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 427 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1943 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.