415 Shipp Rd · Leary, TX 75561

$27,159

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 427 Days on market

Built 1943 9,147 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

EASY COUMUTTING! Nice home available in Hooks, TX. This property has two bedrooms, one bathroom, and 924 sqft. of living space. It presents a fantastic investment near the Texarkana area. This location has easy access to US-82, I-30, and is a short commute from the Texas-Arkansas borderline. Texarkana is also less than 20 minutes away. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

Key facts

• 9,147 sq ft lot
• Built 1943
• Listed 426 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $27k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $534 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($905 rent vs $27k).
• Recommended offer: $24k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#776 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Leary ISD (rural): math 20% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #1,006 of 1,141 in TX (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 137 units permitted in Bowie County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $188 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $815 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 427 days — a 12% lower offer ($24k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1943 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $23,899 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 427 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1943 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 84.30%
• DSCR: 4.75
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 84.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.90×
• Total profit: $29,633
• Equity at exit: $4,049

10-year hold

• IRR: 87.9%
• Equity multiple: 10.16×
• Total profit: $69,655
• Equity at exit: $2,348

Cash invested: $7,605 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75561

• Home prices YoY: -8.4%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $905 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$142
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $328/yr
• Insurance: −$11
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$190
• Net cashflow: $534

Break-even live

Break-even rent $229

Max offer price $27,159

Occupancy floor 36%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,790
• Closing costs: $815
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $27,159 Active 427 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $27,159 Active 426 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $27,159 Active 425 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $27,159 Active 424 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $27,159 Active 423 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $27,159 Active 421 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $27,159 Active 420 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $27,159 Active 418 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $27,159 Active 417 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $27,159 Active 416 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $27,159 Active 415 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $27,159 Active 412 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $27,159 Active 411 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $27,159 Active 410 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $27,159 Active 409 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $27,159 Active 408 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $27,159 Active 407 DOM
18. 2025-12-12
    status Active 562-char remark

    Show marketing remark (562 chars)

    EASY COUMUTTING! Nice home available in Hooks, TX. This property has two bedrooms, one bathroom, and 924 sqft. of living space. It presents a fantastic investment near the Texarkana area. This location has easy access to US-82, I-30, and is a short commute from the Texas-Arkansas borderline. Texarkana is also less than 20 minutes away. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

19. 2025-12-12
    status Pending 562-char remark

    Show marketing remark (562 chars)

    EASY COUMUTTING! Nice home available in Hooks, TX. This property has two bedrooms, one bathroom, and 924 sqft. of living space. It presents a fantastic investment near the Texarkana area. This location has easy access to US-82, I-30, and is a short commute from the Texas-Arkansas borderline. Texarkana is also less than 20 minutes away. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

20. 2025-04-18
    listed $27,159 Active 562-char remark

    Show marketing remark (562 chars)

    EASY COUMUTTING! Nice home available in Hooks, TX. This property has two bedrooms, one bathroom, and 924 sqft. of living space. It presents a fantastic investment near the Texarkana area. This location has easy access to US-82, I-30, and is a short commute from the Texas-Arkansas borderline. Texarkana is also less than 20 minutes away. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $328 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $497 · $41/mo
• Expected delta: +$169/yr (+$14/mo · 51.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,865
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,521
• − Property taxes: −$328
• − Insurance: −$136
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$869
• − Management: −$869
• − Depreciation: −$790
• Taxable income: $6,352
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,524
• After-tax cash flow: $4,886/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Leary ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827060
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,347
• Composite: 28.56/100
• National rank: #12074
• State rank: #1006 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Leary

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #776
• US rank: #14128

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leary, TX
• Population (ZIP): 4,954

Population outlook (Bowie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,699 people
• By 2030: 94,824 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 94,870 · +0.2%
• By 2050: 93,686 · -1.1%
• By 2075: 90,082 · -4.9%
• By 2100: 76,579 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% European 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Bowie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.7) · D 25.3% · R 74.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.8pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -48.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.7 2020: R+42.8 2016: R+46.6 2012: R+41.5 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -14.29%
• Current HPI: 154.9243
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-12 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-12-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-04-18 Listed $27,159 HARMLS

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $328 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.