Willow Plan

San Antonio, TX 78263

$323,990F

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,412 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 288 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,631/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,112
• Tax + insurance: −$671
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$552
• Net cashflow: $-705/mo
• Annual: $-8,459/yr
• Cap rate: 4.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.50%
• DSCR: 0.67
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $112,762

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $324k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-705 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $301k (7.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (18.8% below list).
• It's been on market 288 days — a 12% lower offer ($285k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $263k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• East Central ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #758 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sinclair El (math 13% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,946 of 4,322 statewide, top 92%, 721 students, 71% FRL); East Central Heritage Middle (math 11% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 1,120 students, 44% FRL); East Central H S (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,252 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 367 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 288 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.