Willow Plan · China Grove, TX 78263

$323,990

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,412 sqft · SingleFamily · 240 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.9/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The stylish Willow home offers a fresh take on modern living with its thoughtfully designed two-story layout. With its 5 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms, this floor plan is ideal for growing families, first-time buyers, or anyone seeking a spacious and cozy new space. With its inviting design and open concept living areas, the Willow plan blends comfort and functionality in a way that feels effortlessly livable. Walking into the home through the front porch, you're instantly greeted by the foyer that leads straight into the large family room and front-facing two-car garage. If you and your family need a larger space for extra storage or another vehicle, there is an option to add a half-car garage. The Willow's two-story design features a striking open-to-below living room that fills the home with natural light and creates a sense of openness between both levels. This central space encourages easy connection among family members, whether it's a busy morning getting ready for school or deciding what's for dinner in the evening. Just off the living area, the utility room and powder room offer added convenience, making every day routines feel seamless and well-supported. Going into the heart of the home, you'll find yourself in the connected kitchen and dining room area, creating the perfect setting for your family's everyday meals and special gatherings alike. The open layout encourages connection with others, whether you're entertaining guests or cooking dinner while the kids work. ..

Key facts

• Large family room
• Front porch
• Natural light

Tags

• TWO STORY LAYOUT
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING AREAS
• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• FRONT PORCH
• OPEN TO BELOW LIVING ROOM
• NATURAL LIGHT

🏗️ New construction. The $323,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $473,240.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $324k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $308k (4.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $270k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#873 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• East Central ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #758 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sinclair El (math 13% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,946 of 4,322 statewide, top 92%, 721 students, 71% FRL); East Central Heritage Middle (math 11% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 1,120 students, 44% FRL); East Central H S (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,252 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 289 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 240 days — a 12% lower offer ($285k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $269,500 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 240 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.34%
• DSCR: 0.54
• GRM: 14.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $473,240
• List price: $323,990
• Delta: -31.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5030 Hastings Way	0.12mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,334 (-3%)	4mo	$326,525	$140	77
4940 Hawkwell Ln	0.16mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,334 (-3%)	4mo	$334,524	$143	75
4948 Hawkwell Ln	0.18mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,334 (-3%)	8mo	$338,820	$145	71
8408 Ingress Ave	0.05mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,192 (-9%)	3mo	$304,990	$139	71
4727 Fireweed Ct	0.07mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,192 (-9%)	3mo	$304,990	$139	70
4707 Kinsley Way	0.03mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,192 (-9%)	6mo	$314,990	$144	70
8307 Ingress Ave	0.04mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,192 (-9%)	9mo	$271,100	$124	67
4947 Hawkwell Ln	0.17mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,198 (-9%)	4mo	$325,740	$148	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-149,341
• Equity at exit: $70,562

10-year hold

• IRR: -45.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.69×
• Total profit: $-223,487
• Equity at exit: $40,917

Cash invested: $132,507 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78263

• Home prices YoY: -8.1%
• Active inventory: 289
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,695 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,482
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$592 /mo · $7,099/yr
• Insurance: −$197
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$566
• Net cashflow: $-1,141

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,140

Max offer price $308,077

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-814	-5% $-978	+0% $-1,141	+5% $-1,305	+10% $-1,468
Rent	-10% $-1,354	-5% $-1,248	+0% $-1,141	+5% $-1,035	+10% $-929
Rate	-1.0pp $-903	-0.5pp $-1,021	base $-1,141	+0.5pp $-1,264	+1.0pp $-1,389

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $118,310
• Closing costs: $14,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5330 Kody Crk San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2251	$2,695	$1.20	25d	1	0.96mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $323,990 Active 240 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $323,990 Active 237 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $323,990 Active 236 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $323,990 Active 235 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $323,990 Active 234 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $323,990 Active 232 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $323,990 Active 228 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $323,990 Active 227 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $323,990 Active 226 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $323,990 Active 223 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $323,990 Active 222 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $323,990 Active 221 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $323,990 Active 220 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $323,990 Active 219 DOM
15. 2026-05-02
    price $323,990 1500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1500 chars)

    The stylish Willow home offers a fresh take on modern living with its thoughtfully designed two-story layout. With its 5 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms, this floor plan is ideal for growing families, first-time buyers, or anyone seeking a spacious and cozy new space. With its inviting design and open concept living areas, the Willow plan blends comfort and functionality in a way that feels effortlessly livable. Walking into the home through the front porch, you're instantly greeted by the foyer that leads straight into the large family room and front-facing two-car garage. If you and your family need a larger space for extra storage or another vehicle, there is an option to add a half-car garage. The Willow's two-story design features a striking open-to-below living room that fills the home with natural light and creates a sense of openness between both levels. This central space encourages easy connection among family members, whether it's a busy morning getting ready for school or deciding what's for dinner in the evening. Just off the living area, the utility room and powder room offer added convenience, making every day routines feel seamless and well-supported. Going into the heart of the home, you'll find yourself in the connected kitchen and dining room area, creating the perfect setting for your family's everyday meals and special gatherings alike. The open layout encourages connection with others, whether you're entertaining guests or cooking dinner while the kids work. ..

16. 2025-10-25
    listed $319,990 Active 1500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1500 chars)

    The stylish Willow home offers a fresh take on modern living with its thoughtfully designed two-story layout. With its 5 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms, this floor plan is ideal for growing families, first-time buyers, or anyone seeking a spacious and cozy new space. With its inviting design and open concept living areas, the Willow plan blends comfort and functionality in a way that feels effortlessly livable. Walking into the home through the front porch, you're instantly greeted by the foyer that leads straight into the large family room and front-facing two-car garage. If you and your family need a larger space for extra storage or another vehicle, there is an option to add a half-car garage. The Willow's two-story design features a striking open-to-below living room that fills the home with natural light and creates a sense of openness between both levels. This central space encourages easy connection among family members, whether it's a busy morning getting ready for school or deciding what's for dinner in the evening. Just off the living area, the utility room and powder room offer added convenience, making every day routines feel seamless and well-supported. Going into the heart of the home, you'll find yourself in the connected kitchen and dining room area, creating the perfect setting for your family's everyday meals and special gatherings alike. The open layout encourages connection with others, whether you're entertaining guests or cooking dinner while the kids work. ..

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,340
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,509
• − Property taxes: −$7,099
• − Insurance: −$2,366
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,587
• − Management: −$2,587
• − Depreciation: −$13,767
• Taxable loss: −$22,575
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,418
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,279/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This Willow Plan home in China Grove, TX, is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It offers a fresh and modern design with a two-story layout, ideal for growing families. The home is move-in ready with minimal repairs and maintenance needed, making it a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Improves appearance and reduces maintenance
• Resale New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and appeals to potential buyers
• Resale New bathroom fixtures — Modernizes the bathrooms and appeals to potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Improves appearance and reduces maintenance ↑
• Resale New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and appeals to potential buyers ↑
• Resale New bathroom fixtures — Modernizes the bathrooms and appeals to potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Central ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817850
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,941
• Composite: 18.67/100
• National rank: #8887
• State rank: #758 of 826 in TX

Livability — China Grove

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #873
• US rank: #15748

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,514

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% White 43% Two or more races 24% Black 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Iranian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 29%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -28.29%
• Current HPI: 322.4738
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $323,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-25 Listed $319,990 Zillow