23927 Oriole Valley Trl

Katy, TX 77493

$315,000D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,810 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 80 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,582/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax + insurance: −$1,414
• HOA: −$122
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$542
• Net cashflow: $-1,148/mo
• Annual: $-13,780/yr
• Cap rate: 3.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.82%
• DSCR: 0.56
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $88,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $315k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (34.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (18.0% below list).
• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $205k (34.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert King El (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 981 students, 68% FRL); Katy J H (math 52% / reading 51%, grade C, #318 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 1,094 students, 53% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 27% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 4013 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 66d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?