23927 Oriole Valley Trl · Katy, TX 77493

$315,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,810 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 80 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 3,471 sqft lot Garage $174/sqft · 34% below area Est $479k · 34% under · waterfront $122/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this Beautifully upgraded 2-story TownHome in a Master Plan Community of Elyson with premium lakefront views! This beautiful 3-bed, 2.5-bath home features an open-concept layout with a sleek in-wall fireplace and a modern kitchen with white quartz countertops, island seating, gas cooktop, and ample cabinetry. Upstairs includes 2 guest bedrooms and a highlighted spacious primary suite with dual sinks, separate shower, and walk-in closet. Enjoy a covered front balcony overlooking water views and green space — Extra rare feature includes a prewired EV charging station (up to 60 amps) and convenient guest parking right outside your door.

Key facts

• 3,471 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $315k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (34.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $266k (15.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (34.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert King El (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 981 students, 68% FRL); Katy J H (math 52% / reading 51%, grade C, #318 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 1,094 students, 53% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 27% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 3403 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,482 (34.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
11. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
12. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
13. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
14. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
15. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.94%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $478,711
• List price: $315,000
• Delta: -34.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7655 Meadow Mouse Ln	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,817 (+0%)	4mo	$343,265	$189	90
24019 Breezy Bank Trl	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,714 (-5%)	0mo	$327,440	$191	81
7635 Meadow Mouse Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,714 (-5%)	3mo	$322,565	$188	80
7627 Meadow Mouse Ln	0.13mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,910 (+6%)	4mo	$328,940	$172	76
7611 Meadow Mouse Ln	0.14mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,910 (+6%)	4mo	$339,690	$178	76
7643 Swooping Swallow Ln	0.19mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,046 (+13%)	0mo	$353,815	$173	64
7631 Meadow Mouse Ln	0.14mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,046 (+13%)	4mo	$346,390	$169	63
7211 Mayapple Grove Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,997 (+10%)	2mo	$385,000	$193	54
23923 Sage Row Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0	2,060 (+14%)	0mo	$379,000	$184	51
7130 Sparrow Valley Trl	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,975 (+9%)	2mo	$350,000	$177	50
7202 Cordgrass Prairie Ln	0.53mi	3/2.0	2,068 (+14%)	3mo	$378,000	$183	47
7438 Fraser Peak Dr	0.45mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,049 (+13%)	4mo	$424,900	$207	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -50.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.44×
• Total profit: $-127,209
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.58×
• Total profit: $-227,126
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 45 active · 19 under contract
• Months of supply: 15.9 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $355,590 ($192/sqft)
• Median days on market: 88 d
• This list price: 11% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +38.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 3403
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,664 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$856 /mo · $10,274/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$122
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$559
• Net cashflow: $-1,084

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,035

Max offer price $205,482

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-905	-5% $-995	+0% $-1,084	+5% $-1,173	+10% $-1,262
Rent	-10% $-1,294	-5% $-1,189	+0% $-1,084	+5% $-978	+10% $-873
Rate	-1.0pp $-925	-0.5pp $-1,004	base $-1,084	+0.5pp $-1,165	+1.0pp $-1,248

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
24114 Blooming Daisy Cir Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1500	$3,300	$2.20	93d	1	0.23mi
7706 Cattail Shallows Ln Katy, TX	3.0	3.0	1979	$1,800	$0.91	19d	1	0.26mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association managed by Crest Management CompanyAnnual association fee of $1,464Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces)Detached carport (2 spaces)Additional parkingGarage door openerOversized parkingTandem parking
• Security: Prewired for securityLeased security systemSmoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential property2022 constructionCorner lot
• Construction: Brick constructionComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: BalconyDeckPatioFence (back yard)Private yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection ovenDishwasherGas cooktopDisposalIce makerMicrowaveOvenENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second level (14 x 15)Bedroom on second level (13 x 14)Bedroom on second level (10 x 15)Office on second level (12 x 12)
• Flooring: CarpetTileWood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air conditioning (electric)Attic fanProgrammable thermostat
• Interior features: Breakfast barBalconyDouble vanityHigh ceilingsKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboBath in primary bedroomPantryQuartz countersSeparate showerTub/shower comboCeiling fan(s)Kitchen/dining comboProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windowsDecorative fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

HOA detail $122/mo · $1,464/yr

• Likely covers: watergas

Listing history 46 events

1. 2026-07-22
   days on market $315,000 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-07-21
   days on market $315,000 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-07-20
   days on market $315,000 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-07-18
   days on market $315,000 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-07-18
   days on market $315,000 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-07-16
   days on market $315,000 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-07-15
   days on market $315,000 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-07-14
   days on market $315,000 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-07-13
   days on market $315,000 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-07-13
    days on market $315,000 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-07-11
    days on market $315,000 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-07-10
    days on market $315,000 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-07-09
    days on market $315,000 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-07-07
    status $315,000 Active 65 DOM
15. 2026-07-03
    days on market $315,000 Pending 65 DOM
16. 2026-07-02
    days on market $315,000 Pending 64 DOM
17. 2026-07-01
    days on market $315,000 Pending 63 DOM
18. 2026-06-30
    days on market $315,000 Pending 62 DOM
19. 2026-06-29
    days on market $315,000 Pending 61 DOM
20. 2026-06-28
    days on market $315,000 Pending 60 DOM
21. 2026-06-27
    statusdays on market $315,000 Pending 59 DOM
22. 2026-06-26
    days on market $315,000 Active 58 DOM
23. 2026-06-24
    days on market $315,000 Active 56 DOM
24. 2026-06-22
    days on market $315,000 Active 54 DOM
25. 2026-06-21
    days on market $315,000 Active 53 DOM
26. 2026-06-18
    days on market $315,000 Active 50 DOM
27. 2026-06-17
    days on market $315,000 Active 49 DOM
28. 2026-06-16
    days on market $315,000 Active 48 DOM
29. 2026-06-15
    days on market $315,000 Active 47 DOM
30. 2026-06-13
    days on market $315,000 Active 45 DOM
31. 2026-06-09
    days on market $315,000 Active 41 DOM
32. 2026-06-08
    days on market $315,000 Active 40 DOM
33. 2026-06-07
    days on market $315,000 Active 39 DOM
34. 2026-06-04
    days on market $315,000 Active 36 DOM
35. 2026-06-03
    days on market $315,000 Active 35 DOM
36. 2026-06-02
    days on market $315,000 Active 34 DOM
37. 2026-06-01
    days on market $315,000 Active 33 DOM
38. 2026-05-31
    days on market $315,000 Active 32 DOM
39. 2026-05-14
    price $315,000 847-char remark
40. 2026-04-29
    listed $319,000 Active 847-char remark
41. 2024-09-27
    historical $2,500
42. 2024-09-25
    historical $2,500
43. 2024-09-25
    listed $2,500
44. 2024-09-24
    historical $2,500
45. 2024-09-05
    listed $2,500
46. 2024-09-05
    listed $2,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,274 · $856/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,274 · $856/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,962
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$10,274
• − Insurance: −$6,694
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,557
• − Management: −$2,557
• − HOA: −$1,464
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$18,392
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,414
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,590/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This beautifully upgraded 2-story townhome in a master plan community offers an open-concept layout, modern kitchen, and a covered front balcony with water views. It is in good condition with minimal repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the interior walls and ceiling — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace the flooring in the bedrooms — New flooring can improve the home's appearance and increase its value ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase the home's appeal and convenience for potential buyers ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Robert King El F TX #1,313/4,322 Nat'l #17,692/41,679 Middle Katy J H C TX #318/1,662 Nat'l #3,192/14,009 High Katy H S B TX #150/1,632 Nat'l #2,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association managed by Crest Management CompanyAnnual association fee of $1,464Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces)Detached carport (2 spaces)Additional parkingGarage door openerOversized parkingTandem parking
• Security: Prewired for securityLeased security systemSmoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential property2022 constructionCorner lot
• Construction: Brick constructionComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: BalconyDeckPatioFence (back yard)Private yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection ovenDishwasherGas cooktopDisposalIce makerMicrowaveOvenENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second level (14 x 15)Bedroom on second level (13 x 14)Bedroom on second level (10 x 15)Office on second level (12 x 12)
• Flooring: CarpetTileWood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air conditioning (electric)Attic fanProgrammable thermostat
• Interior features: Breakfast barBalconyDouble vanityHigh ceilingsKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboBath in primary bedroomPantryQuartz countersSeparate showerTub/shower comboCeiling fan(s)Kitchen/dining comboProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windowsDecorative fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

Price history

+12500.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $315,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $319,000 HARMLS
• 2024-09-27 Rental Removed $2,500 APPFOLIO
• 2024-09-25 Rental Removed $2,500 RENT.
• 2024-09-25 Listed for Rent $2,500 APPFOLIO
• 2024-09-24 Rental Removed $2,500 HARMLS
• 2024-09-05 Listed for Rent $2,500 RENT.
• 2024-09-05 Listed for Rent $2,500 HARMLS

Property tax history

+102.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,274 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.