1606 Winter Creek Ct

Greenville, MI 48838

$219,900D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,500 sqft · Built 1997 · Condo · Pending · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,260/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax + insurance: −$366
• HOA: −$275
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $-9/mo
• Annual: $-114/yr
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.18%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $61,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-9 ($-114/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (0.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $220k).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $217k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#426 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Greenville Public Schools (town): math 35% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #167 of 540 in MI (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Baldwin Heights School (math 47% / reading 60%, grade C, #318 of 1,397 statewide, top 23%, 485 students, 57% FRL); Greenville Middle School (math 28% / reading 49%, grade F, #228 of 493 statewide, top 47%, 799 students, 63% FRL); Greenville Senior High School (math 35% / reading 60%, grade D, #185 of 713 statewide, top 26%, 1,106 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools average 59% FRL vs 44% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 193 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 273 units permitted in Montcalm County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montcalm County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $220k implies a 131% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.2% in Greenville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.