425 Old Monterey Rd

Owenton, KY 40359

$134,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · Built — · Other · Pending · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $910/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax + insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$191
• Net cashflow: $-102/mo
• Annual: $-1,228/yr
• Cap rate: 5.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.25%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $37,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $135k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-102 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $117k (13.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $91k (32.6% below list).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $91k (32.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#355 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Owen County (rural): math 24% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #120 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Owen County Elementary/Primary School (math 27% / reading 35%, grade F, #378 of 676 statewide, top 57%, 690 students, 62% FRL); Maurice Bowling Middle School (math 22% / reading 33%, grade F, #168 of 217 statewide, top 78%, 484 students, 62% FRL); Owen County High School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #158 of 254 statewide, top 68%, 558 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Owen County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Owen County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 1.4% in Owenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.