9311 Crescent Mill Dr

Sienna, TX 77459

$419,900C-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,577 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Pending · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,475/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,202
• Tax + insurance: −$1,535
• HOA: −$124
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$940
• Net cashflow: $-326/mo
• Annual: $-3,912/yr
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.65%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $117,572

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $420k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-326 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $362k (13.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $420k).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($407k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $362k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ronald Thornton Middle (math 40% / reading 52%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,529 students, 41% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1215 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.3% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.